SpaceX eyes $100 billion revenue target as shares reclaim IPO price
Deutsche Bank projects annual recurring revenue could triple to $100 billion, driven by deals with Anthropic, Google and a suspected US government contract, while shares rally past their $135 listing price.
SpaceX has reaffirmed its objective to achieve $100 billion in annual recurring revenue by the end of the year, a target that Deutsche Bank analyst Edison Yu describes as achievable despite the aggressive timeline. The projection relies heavily on anticipated growth within the company’s neocloud services division, which is expected to contribute significantly to the top line as new contracts ramp up.
In the second quarter, SpaceX reported an annualised run-rate of $31 billion and capital expenditures of $18.4 billion, figures that substantially exceeded analyst estimates of approximately $6 billion for spending alone. Yu notes that neocloud revenue, which stood at $1.6 billion in the second quarter from a single deal with Anthropic, is set to increase sharply. The Anthropic agreement is expected to generate $3.75 billion in quarterly revenue by the third quarter.
Further revenue acceleration is anticipated from a Google agreement, which Yu expects to hit a full rate of $920 million per month starting in October. Additionally, SpaceX recently signed a $6.7 billion deal over six months, which analysts suspect involves the US government. Yu also anticipates one further large neocloud deal before year-end, potentially adding $45 billion to $50 billion in annualised recurring revenue by December.
The financial outlook comes as SpaceX shares have rallied, recently surpassing their $135 initial public offering price for the first time in a month. The stock closed at $133.11 on 7 August after recovering from an intraday low of $104.83 earlier in the month. The rally occurred shortly after 911.5 million shares held by employees and early investors became eligible to trade, a volume significantly larger than the 638.9 million shares issued at the IPO.
Despite the positive momentum, the shares remain well below the record high of $225 reached in June. Capital expenditure remains a key focus, with executive commentary suggesting third and fourth-quarter spending could mirror the second quarter’s $18.4 billion level. This implies full-year capital expenditures of approximately $65 billion, compared to Wall Street’s model of $50 billion.
