Lula retains narrow lead over Bolsonaro in tightening Brazilian election race
President’s emphasis on national sovereignty and defence spending comes amid warnings against foreign interference as campaign enters final two months.
Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva has maintained a marginal advantage over right-wing Senator Flavio Bolsonaro in the lead-up to October’s presidential election, according to a new poll released on Friday. A Quaest survey, commissioned by the Brazilian media group Globo, indicates that Lula would secure 43 percent of the vote in a simulated run-off against Bolsonaro’s 40 percent.
The result falls within the poll’s two-point margin of error, effectively rendering the contest a statistical tie. This represents a narrowing of the gap compared to an earlier Quaest poll conducted on August 5, which showed Lula leading by five points, with 44 percent of the vote to Bolsonaro’s 39 percent.
In a first-round scenario, Lula leads more comfortably with 38 percent, followed by Bolsonaro at 31 percent. Three other candidates trail significantly, with Renan Santos and Ronaldo Caiado each polling at 4 percent, and Romeu Zema at 2 percent. Under Brazilian electoral rules, if no candidate secures more than half the valid votes in the first round, the top two finishers advance to a run-off.
The poll, conducted between August 10 and 13, surveyed 2,004 people. Flavio Bolsonaro, the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, has emerged as the standard-bearer for Brazil’s right after his father was barred from running. The elder Bolsonaro was ruled ineligible for office after Brazil’s top electoral court found he had abused his power, and was later convicted over a plot to overturn his 2022 election loss to Lula.
Lula launched his re-election bid on August 2 at the Workers’ Party convention in Sao Paulo, framing his campaign around national sovereignty and increased defence spending. He pledged to shield Brazil’s reserves of rare earths and critical minerals from foreign control, stating he wanted to be prepared so that no one would invade the country.
The President also issued warnings against foreign interference, particularly from United States President Donald Trump, who maintains close ties with the Bolsonaro family. In June, Lula told Trump not to meddle in the Brazilian elections, asserting that the race was a domestic issue. With the vote two months away, the tightening race highlights a competitive political landscape, though Lula retains a narrow structural advantage.
