Logistics, not scarcity, drive global food security crisis
A forecasted super El Niño and conflict in the Strait of Hormuz are disrupting agricultural supply chains, according to expert analysis.
Global food security is facing mounting pressure from a convergence of extreme weather patterns and geopolitical conflict. While experts are forecasting a "super El Niño" phenomenon that could disrupt planting and harvest cycles, the immediate threat to food systems appears to be logistical rather than a lack of physical supply. This dual pressure risks pushing millions more people into acute food insecurity in the coming period.
Shawn Arita, Associate Research Professor at North Dakota State University, argues that the core issue is the breakdown in movement rather than availability. "The food does exist, the availability does exist," Arita stated. "The main issue currently speaking is that the movement is broken." This distinction suggests that infrastructure and transport bottlenecks are currently more critical to market stability than crop yields alone.
A key point of disruption is the Strait of Hormuz, which Arita describes as a vital "fertilizer corridor" for farmers worldwide. Prior to 2026, approximately one-third of globally exported fertilizers passed through this route. The ongoing wars involving Iran and Ukraine have now disrupted this shipping lane, creating a significant bottleneck in the global agricultural supply chain.
These supply-side and yield-side concerns are transmitting upward pressure on cereal and grain prices. The disruption is not limited to the immediate region but is affecting major producers across the world. As supply chains fracture, the cost of essential inputs rises, creating a ripple effect throughout the food system.
The financial strain on agricultural producers is becoming a structural concern. Arita notes that high fertilizer and energy prices are squeezing profit margins, which in many cases have turned negative. "When farmers' profit margins are weak or in many cases negative, throughout the US and for many farmers in the world, the depression of those margins leads to less output," he explained.
Ultimately, this economic compression is expected to reduce global agricultural output. As margins shrink, farmers are incentivised to produce less, a trend that will feed into lower food production globally. The combination of weather forecasts and conflict-driven logistics issues presents a complex challenge for policymakers and market participants alike.
