WHO declares Ebola emergency as modelling suggests under-detection in DR Congo

The World Health Organization has declared the Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of Congo an international public health emergency, following warnings that the virus is spreading faster than initially anticipated. Dr Anne Ancia, a WHO representative, indicated that investigations are revealing a broader dissemination of the Bundibugyo strain across borders and into additional provinces, complicating containment efforts.

Official figures recorded on Tuesday listed at least 131 deaths from more than 513 suspected cases. However, modelling conducted by the London-based MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis suggests substantial under-detection. The analysis indicates that the actual number of cases may exceed 1,000, with the outbreak potentially having been ongoing for several weeks prior to its detection on 24 April.

WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus expressed deep concern regarding the scale and speed of the epidemic. He noted that the virus has moved beyond the epicentre in Ituri province, a gold-mining hub with high cross-border movement, into South Kivu and the city of Goma. Goma, home to approximately 850,000 people and currently under the control of Rwandan-backed rebels, represents a significant risk point due to its population density and security dynamics.

The spread has triggered immediate regional security and border control measures. Neighbouring Rwanda has closed its borders with the Democratic Republic of Congo, while other African nations are tightening border screenings and preparing health facilities. The insecurity in several provinces has facilitated frequent population movement, increasing the risk of transmission and hindering the agency’s ability to investigate and control the disease effectively.

There is currently no vaccine for the specific Bundibugyo strain causing this outbreak, although the WHO is evaluating other drugs for potential protection. International evacuation efforts are underway, with an American citizen, identified as missionary group doctor Peter Stafford, being transported to Germany after developing symptoms. The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is also working to evacuate at least six other Americans exposed to the virus.