Poland warns of hybrid Russian strikes aimed at fracturing NATO unity
Warsaw cites intelligence suggesting Moscow plans to stage "accidental" drone and missile attacks on Ukraine’s allies to deter collective defence responses, following recent border incidents and increased air activity.
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk has warned that intelligence assessments indicate Russia is preparing hybrid drone and missile strikes against countries supporting Ukraine, including Poland. Addressing parliament on Thursday, Tusk stated that the objective of these potential attacks is to weaken NATO’s ability to act collectively in the event of aggression.
The Prime Minister described the planned strikes as being designed to appear "accidental" in nature. According to Tusk, this ambiguity is intended to paralyse or weaken the resolve of NATO member states to invoke the alliance’s relevant provisions, thereby creating a diplomatic buffer for Moscow. He noted that European nations have long suspected Moscow of orchestrating a series of recent sabotage acts to pressure allies, particularly Germany, although the Kremlin has vigorously denied these claims.
Tusk suggested that these strikes could coincide with political shifts in Europe, specifically referencing the rise of parties he described as Russia-friendly, such as the Alternative for Germany (AfD) and France’s National Rally. He argued that these groups, invoking slogans of peace and pacifism, may call for what he termed the "total capitulation of Ukraine" if the alliance appears divided. Notably, Tusk did not specify which intelligence agencies provided the warning or offer a precise timeframe for the potential strikes.
The warning follows a tense few days on the border. Earlier on Thursday, Poland scrambled military aircraft and temporarily closed airports in Rzeszow and Lublin after a Russian attack near the border town of Dorohusk. Tusk stated that a petrol station near the border was "most likely" attacked again, while residents in two eastern Polish regions received air raid warnings. Local media reported that sirens sounded and pupils in some schools sought shelter.
Defence Minister Wladyslaw Kosiniak-Kamysz confirmed that Poland is strengthening its airspace protection in response to the heightened threat. He announced an increase in F-16 and helicopter activity, alongside the reinforcement of air defence and rapid response systems. This comes after a Russian drone struck a passenger train in Ukraine on Sunday, just two kilometres from the Polish border.
Tusk is scheduled to visit Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Friday to discuss cooperation within the Integrated Anti-Ballistic Missile Coalition. The initiative involves a group of European countries developing an air defence system with Ukraine, positioned as a more cost-effective alternative to the US-built Patriot system.
