Iran seeks a foothold in Central Asia as Russian fuel supplies falter
Tajikistan reports receiving Iranian petroleum products, while a proposed Kyrgyz refinery would use Iranian crude. Transport constraints and sanctions risks could limit the trade.
Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan are exploring Iranian supplies as Russian fuel shortages disrupt a region long reliant on Moscow. The shift comes amid Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries, which have reduced refining capacity and prompted fuel rationing and export restrictions in Russia, Al Jazeera reported.
Tajikistan’s Energy and Water Resources Ministry said in August that Iranian oil and petroleum products were arriving. It cited an expected 2.55 million tonnes, but has not disclosed the transport route or delivery schedule.
Iran also agreed in August to supply crude for a proposed joint refinery in Kyrgyzstan, with output to be shared between the two countries, according to Iranian news agency Tasnim. The project’s capacity and timeline have not been specified.
The stakes are significant for both countries: Tajikistan has sourced up to 80 per cent of its petroleum products from Russia, while Kyrgyzstan has obtained more than 90 per cent of its petrol there. Analysts say Iranian shipments would need to pass through Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, adding logistical demands.
Al Jazeera quoted analyst Frederic Schneider as saying Iran’s opening may be temporary. Russian supplies could regain ground if refinery repairs are completed or strikes ease, while established Russian transport links may make its fuel cheaper to deliver.
Possible US secondary sanctions on companies or financial institutions involved in Iranian petroleum trade also pose a risk, Schneider said. The scale and durability of Iran’s role will depend on transport, competition and how Russian supply develops.
