ESPN’s SP+ Model Projects Ohio State and Georgia as 2026 College Football Leaders
Bill Connelly’s analysis identifies Georgia and Ohio State as top contenders, with the Buckeyes projected to secure 7.5 wins and the Bulldogs 7.0 in the upcoming season.
ESPN analyst Bill Connelly released the final preseason SP+ projections for the 2026 college football season on 13 August 2026, identifying Georgia, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Ole Miss, Oregon, and Texas A&M as the primary contenders for the campaign. The model projects Ohio State to secure 7.5 wins, while Georgia is expected to achieve 7.0 wins, establishing them as the early favourites in the national landscape.
The analysis highlights significant projected rebounds for Oklahoma State, Virginia Tech, and UCLA following coaching changes. Oklahoma State is forecast to rise 22.0 points in the rankings, while Virginia Tech is expected to improve by 18.7 points, reflecting a regression toward the mean after recent collapses. UCLA is also projected to gain 14.1 points under new leadership, contrasting with expected declines for teams such as North Texas, UConn, and Toledo.
Conference-specific projections reveal a competitive SEC, with Georgia leading the conference at 7.0 projected wins, followed by Texas at 6.0 and LSU at 5.8. The Big Ten is projected to be led by Ohio State with 7.5 wins, with Oregon and Indiana following closely. The Big 12 sees Texas Tech as the top projected team with 7.7 wins, while the ACC projects Miami to lead with 7.6 wins.
Schedule strength plays a critical role in the early season narrative, with Texas facing the toughest projected schedule overall. Ohio State and Michigan also face rigorous non-conference and conference challenges, which could impact their College Football Playoff positioning. Conversely, Georgia and Vanderbilt are projected to have more navigable schedules, potentially aiding their early-season performance.
The report also details the impact of transfer portal activity on returning production metrics across all divisions. The national average for returning production has dropped to 51.3 per cent for 2026, with Power 4 teams averaging 58 per cent and Group of 6 teams at 46 per cent. This shift underscores the increasing influence of transfers on team composition and the predictive models used to evaluate them.
