ESPN ranks Skubal as top MLB trade candidate ahead of 2026 deadline
Analysts Kiley McDaniel and Jeff Passan highlight Detroit’s Tarik Skubal and Padres’ Mason Miller among the most likely players to change teams.
ESPN has published an updated ranking of the top 100 Major League Baseball trade deadline candidates for the 2026 season, compiled by analysts Kiley McDaniel and Jeff Passan. The list aims to identify potential trade targets ahead of the 3 August deadline, utilising a minimum 10% trade likelihood threshold for inclusion. Detroit Tigers ace Tarik Skubal tops the list with a 60% probability of being traded, following his return from midseason bone chip surgery and a reported fastball velocity of 99.9 mph.
The rankings assess players based on trade value, rest-of-season impact, and years of club control. Skubal is described as a game-changing ace who won back-to-back Cy Young Awards and relies on a diverse arsenal including a four-seam fastball, changeup, and slider. ESPN notes that the Tigers are far more likely than not to move Skubal, given their position six teams behind the final American League wild card spot. Potential suitors identified include the Dodgers, Braves, and Phillies.
Padres reliever Mason Miller is ranked as the top relief candidate with a 40% likelihood of a trade. Miller has recorded a historic average fastball velocity of 101.3 mph and is considered the best reliever in baseball. The article suggests the Padres may move Miller to replenish their roster, with the Yankees, Mariners, and Phillies listed as best fits. Less than a year after acquiring him, the Padres are weighing the decision to trade him despite his recent historic performance.
Other notable inclusions include Giants infielder Luis Arraez, who has risen in the rankings due to improved defensive metrics at second base. Arraez is now rated as a plus defender, a significant shift from his previous standing, despite leading MLB in strikeout rate. His versatility and contact ability have expanded his market, positioning him to join his fifth team in five years.
The Houston Astros are also in focus, with shortstop Jeremy Peña listed with a 10% trade likelihood. The article notes the Astros may move him to replenish their farm system, similar to previous moves of George Springer and Carlos Correa. Peña is a plus defender with a strong power and speed combo, and the Astros are described as being in a pickle between wanting to contend and lacking the roster depth to do so.
