CBS Sports forecasts first defeats for 13 College Football Playoff contenders in 2026
From Texas’s road trip to Tennessee to Ohio State’s clash with Oregon, predictions highlight where undefeated seasons may falter.
CBS Sports has published an analysis predicting the first loss for 13 top contenders in the 2026 College Football Playoff season. The report evaluates schedule difficulty, roster composition, and transfer portal activity to identify potential stumbling blocks for teams targeting an undefeated record. The predictions cover matchups involving major programmes including Texas, Ohio State, Georgia, and Notre Dame, with specific dates and opponents identified for each projected defeat.
Texas is predicted to suffer its first loss at Tennessee on 26 September. The analysis cites potential communication issues within Ohio State's new defensive starters as a factor in Texas's earlier victory over the Buckeyes, suggesting the Longhorns will test Ohio State vertically before facing the hostile environment of Neyland Stadium.
Ohio State is projected to lose its first game against Oregon on 7 November. The forecast suggests the Buckeyes may be under pressure to secure a playoff berth when they face an Oregon side that could be 8-0 and inside the top five. This matchup is viewed as a critical test for Oregon coach Dan Lanning, who has faced criticism following previous losses to Indiana and Ohio State.
Notre Dame is expected to lose its first game to Miami in November. The Hurricanes are tipped to challenge the Fighting Irish up front and generate explosive plays in a fourth-quarter contest. A defeat would eliminate Notre Dame's margin for error, potentially turning their subsequent match against SMU into a playoff-elimination game.
Georgia is predicted to lose its first game at South Carolina on 21 November. The Gamecocks are highlighted for their talent, including quarterback LaNorris Sellers, wideout Nyck Harbor, and edge rusher Dylan Stewart. The analysis notes that Georgia may have already secured a spot in the SEC Championship Game, raising the risk of an upset at Williams-Brice Stadium.
Indiana is forecast to lose its first game to Ohio State on 17 October. This matchup is expected to end the Hoosiers' nation-leading 22-game winning streak. The Buckeyes are projected to bring superior speed, depth, and physicality, overwhelming an Indiana team that has faced little resistance in its opening six games.
Miami is projected to lose its first game at Oklahoma State on 14 November. Despite a strong transfer portal haul for the Red Raiders, the Cowboys are expected to pose a significant challenge late in the season. Oklahoma State has added more than 70 new players under first-year coach Eric Morris and has shown improved form against Texas Tech at home.
LSU is predicted to lose its first game at Ole Miss on 19 September. The Rebels are expected to leverage an emotional edge and urgency, playing faster and feeding off the crowd. While LSU may have a deeper roster, the analysis suggests Ole Miss will handle the moment better, handing LSU coach Lane Kiffin his first loss with the Tigers.
Alabama is expected to lose its first game to Georgia in October. The Bulldogs are tipped to win the physical battle at the line of scrimmage, wearing down an Alabama front that has yet to show consistent toughness. The analysis references Georgia's dominance in last season's league title game as a precedent for this matchup.
Ole Miss is projected to lose its first game at Texas. The Longhorns are expected to overcome the Rebels' talent deficit with advantages along both lines of scrimmage and a loaded offense. The analysis suggests Texas can absorb Ole Miss's punches and eventually control the game in a championship-level road environment.
Texas A&M is predicted to lose its first game at LSU. The Aggies' road trip to Tiger Stadium is viewed as particularly challenging, with LSU's home-field advantage and potential for creating turnovers highlighted. The analysis suggests LSU will feed off the noise in the second half and survive any early mistakes by the Aggies.
Oklahoma is forecast to lose its first game at Georgia on 26 September. The Sooners are expected to keep the margin tight, but Georgia's stronger difference-makers in the trenches and offensive depth are predicted to prevail. The analysis notes that Georgia's speed and depth will likely overcome Oklahoma's defensive efforts in a low-scoring slugfest.
