CBS Sports forecasts 2026 college football playoff with Miami as top seed
Preseason projections identify Miami, Ohio State, Oregon, and Notre Dame as leading contenders for the national championship in the expanded 12-team format.
CBS Sports has released its preseason projections for the 2026 college football season, forecasting all 43 bowl games and the 12-team College Football Playoff bracket. The analysis identifies Miami, Ohio State, Oregon, and Notre Dame as the primary contenders for the national championship, with Miami projected as the No. 1 seed.
The projections are based on win-loss records, conference standings, and the current 12-team playoff format, which includes five automatic bids for the highest-ranked conference champions and seven at-large bids determined by the selection committee. CBS Sports notes that the expanded field has created a greater margin for error among national championship contenders compared to previous formats.
Miami is positioned at the top of the bracket, a decision supported by the Hurricanes’ transfer portal acquisitions, schedule favourability, and staff continuity under head coach Mario Cristobal. A key regular-season matchup is projected between No. 1 Miami and Notre Dame on 7 November, which is expected to determine the top-ranked unbeaten team heading into the postseason.
The report details specific bowl pairings across the Power Four and Group of Five conferences. Notable matchups include Alabama versus Iowa, Texas A&M versus Michigan, and Penn State versus Ole Miss. These pairings are derived from projected conference standings and final win-loss records for the 138 FBS teams.
In the lower tiers of the bracket, SMU is projected as the 11-seed, the last team in the playoff, with an 11-2 record. The projection assumes SMU loses to Notre Dame in the regular season and Miami in the ACC title game. UNLV is also identified as a potential "bid-stealer" for teams with three losses, such as USC and Ole Miss, due to its status as an automatic choice.
Historical context suggests that only Clemson in 2024 and Alabama in 2025 have lost three games prior to the final vote and still received a playoff berth. CBS Sports projects that seven of the preseason top 10 teams will make the playoff, while acknowledging that specific pairings may change based on actual performance during the season.
