Burnham to chair No 10 growth meeting as July deficit hits £1.8bn

Andy Burnham is expected to chair a growth meeting call at No 10 North, working in conjunction with Chancellor John Healey, Lou Haigh, Angela Rayner, and Sally Jameson. Regional mayors are also anticipated to participate in the session, which aims to address economic priorities ahead of the upcoming fiscal announcements.

The convening of the meeting follows the Office for National Statistics reporting that the UK government recorded a larger-than-expected £1.8bn deficit in July. This result contrasts with the zero shortfall anticipated by city economists, who had predicted a balanced position for the month.

July typically yields a surplus or balanced outcome due to swollen Treasury receipts from self-assessment income tax payments. Data indicates that self-assessment tax paid in July reached £17.1bn, a figure £1.7bn higher than the same month last year. Despite this increase in revenue, the Office for National Statistics attributed the deficit to spending growth outpacing receipts.

Looking at the broader fiscal picture, the cumulative deficit for the first four months of the financial year stood at £56.7bn. While this total is lower than the figure recorded in the same period last year, it remains £2.3bn ahead of the forecast provided by the Office for Budget Responsibility.

The current financial position is expected to be gloomier than the projections outlined at former Chancellor Rachel Reeves’s spring statement in March. At that time, the Iran war had only just begun, and Reeves reported a £23.6bn figure, suggesting that the fiscal buffer established under her tenure may be eroding.

Chancellor John Healey is scheduled to announce his first budget on 28 October. The growth meeting serves as a key institutional step in shaping the policy responses required to address these emerging fiscal headwinds.