Week 4 results reshape ESPN’s playoff and bowl projections
ESPN analysts Kyle Bonagura and Mark Schlabach agree on some playoff match-ups but differ on several teams and seeds.
ESPN has revised its projections for the 2026–27 College Football Playoff and bowl games following Week 4, when several results shifted the forecast postseason field.
The update cites Iowa’s win over Michigan, conference victories by Florida and Mississippi State, and Oregon’s road win over USC. ESPN analysts Kyle Bonagura and Mark Schlabach each project a 12-team playoff, but their forecasts differ on teams, seeds and later-round match-ups.
Both analysts project Ohio State to meet Ole Miss in the first round and Miami to receive a bye. Their other first-round forecasts diverge: Bonagura has Texas, Utah and BYU among the match-ups, while Schlabach projects Indiana, Iowa and Florida in those places.
The differences continue through the projected quarter-finals and championship game. Bonagura forecasts Georgia against Notre Dame for the title; Schlabach projects Georgia against Miami. These are analysts’ forecasts, not confirmed rankings, selections or bowl assignments.
ESPN says it will update bowl projections weekly until actual match-ups are set on 6 December. The source describes the season-ending championship as scheduled for 25 January in Las Vegas.
