US mortgage rates show mixed movement as 30-year fixed hits 6.52%
While the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rose by three basis points, the 15-year fixed rate dipped, reflecting broader market stability forecasts from major industry bodies.
Average US mortgage rates displayed mixed movement on Friday, July 17, 2026, according to data from the Zillow lender marketplace. The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage increased by three basis points to 6.52%, marking a slight uptick in borrowing costs for long-term homebuyers. Conversely, the average 15-year fixed-rate mortgage decreased by one basis point to 5.95%, offering a marginal improvement for borrowers seeking shorter repayment terms.
The 5/1 adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) also saw a slight increase, rising by one basis point to 6.75%. This divergence in rate movements highlights the nuanced dynamics currently shaping the mortgage market, where different loan products are reacting to varied economic pressures and lender pricing strategies.
Freddie Mac reported that the average 30-year mortgage rate stood at 6.55% through Wednesday, July 15, 2026, up from 6.49% the previous week. This weekly increase follows a broader downward trend, with rates falling by more than half a point since the end of May 2026. The decline in rates has contributed to a significant surge in activity, with refinance applications rising by more than 62% year-on-year.
Looking ahead, forecasts from major industry bodies suggest relative stability for the remainder of the year and into 2027. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) projects that 30-year fixed rates will remain between 6.4% and 6.5% through 2026, and hold steady at 6.5% for all of 2027. Fannie Mae offers a slightly more optimistic outlook, predicting a 30-year rate of 6.4% through the end of 2026 and average rates between 6.3% and 6.4% throughout 2027.
Despite the recent weekly uptick, the year-on-year comparison remains notable. In July 2025, the average 30-year mortgage rate was recorded at 6.75%. The current levels, while showing minor fluctuations, are significantly lower than the previous year, providing a more favourable environment for refinancing and new mortgage originations compared to the prior 12-month period.
