US declares super El Niño as climate risks compound with global warming
While the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration confirms the onset of a potentially record-breaking El Niño, Australian and European agencies highlight the compounded dangers of extreme weather intersecting with anthropogenic climate change.
The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has officially declared the start of an El Niño event in the tropical Pacific, citing sea surface temperatures that have risen sharply above the 0.5C threshold required to define the phenomenon. The declaration follows a shift in winds above the equatorial Pacific, indicating that the atmosphere is now responding to the warming ocean. Forecasters warn that this could result in a "super" El Niño, with NOAA’s June outlook assigning a 63% probability to a "very strong" event exceeding 2C above average, potentially ranking among the largest in the historical record since 1950.
Computer models from both the US and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) suggest the event could intensify further, with some projections indicating temperatures in the tropical Pacific may climb more than 3C above average by year-end. This intensity is significant given that a very strong El Niño typically lifts global air temperatures by approximately 0.2C. The announcement comes as no surprise to forecasters, who had anticipated this warming phase following the fade of the La Niña pattern at the end of last year.
The primary concern for policymakers and scientists lies in the interaction between this natural climate cycle and existing human-caused global warming. Professor Adam Scaife of the UK Met Office noted that the current event is "riding on top of a substantial amount of global warming," which could lead to unprecedented temperatures in affected regions. With 2024 recorded as the warmest year on record and 2025 the third warmest despite La Niña’s cooling influence, experts project that global temperatures are likely to peak in 2027, potentially exceeding 1.5C above late-19th-century levels.
The geopolitical and humanitarian implications of such a weather pattern are severe, particularly regarding food security and regional stability. Mohamed Adow of Power Shift Africa described the declaration as a "deadly siren," warning of failed rains, dying crops, and rising food prices, especially in East Africa where communities are already vulnerable. The event is expected to bring flooding to parts of South America and East Africa, while increasing drought and wildfire risks across Australia, Indonesia, and northern South America, directly threatening agricultural output and global food stocks.
International meteorological agencies are responding with varying degrees of caution based on their specific criteria. Japan’s Meteorological Agency (JMA) has confirmed El Niño conditions are present and expects the event to persist into autumn. In contrast, Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) has not formally declared the event, utilising a stricter 0.8C threshold for sea surface temperatures. The BoM states that the tropical Pacific is "approaching El Niño conditions" and anticipates a strong event later in the year, highlighting the divergent monitoring standards employed by national institutions.
