UN and WMO issue urgent climate warning as El Nino probability rises to 90 per cent

The United Nations and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) have issued a joint alert regarding an impending El Nino weather pattern, citing an 80 per cent probability of occurrence between June and August, rising to 90 per cent by November. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres characterised the event as an urgent climate warning, predicting severe impacts including floods, droughts, heatwaves, and exacerbated wildfires. The European Union has announced the deployment of a record number of firefighters and aircraft across southern Europe, including Cyprus, Greece, Italy, France, Spain, and Portugal. Industry leaders, such as Barry Callebaut CEO Hein Schumacher, warn that El Nino could reduce cocoa crops in Ecuador and West Africa—regions accounting for 60 per cent of global output—potentially driving up prices. WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo also highlighted risks of vector-borne disease spread and reduced food and water supplies.

The WMO issued its alert on Tuesday, specifying that El Nino is marked by unusually warm sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. This naturally occurring phenomenon, which typically recurs every two to seven years, alters global wind, pressure, and rainfall patterns. The UN agency predicts this year’s event to be at least moderate, and possibly strong, with Guterres stating that impacts will “hit even harder, travel even farther, and cross borders with devastating speed.”

Researchers at Imperial College London and the World Weather Attribution network have linked the trend to potentially severe wildfires this year. In response to these heightened risks, the European Union has announced plans to deploy a record number of firefighters and aircraft in high-risk areas across Cyprus, Greece, Italy, France, Spain, and Portugal. This mobilisation reflects a strategic shift towards pre-emptive infrastructure protection as meteorological models converge on a high-likelihood scenario.

WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo highlighted risks including the wider spread of vector-borne diseases, such as those carried by mosquitoes and ticks, and reduced food and water supplies. She noted that the previous El Nino, which occurred from 2023 to 2024, contributed to making 2024 the hottest year on record. Saulo warned that communities already facing systemic challenges would be pushed “farther beyond their limits” by the compounding effects of extreme heat and resource scarcity.

For global markets, the convergence of geopolitical conflict and climatic stress presents significant economic risks. Hein Schumacher, CEO of Barry Callebaut, warned that crops in growing regions accounting for 60 per cent of global cocoa output could be reduced, potentially leading to price increases of “a few thousands per tonne.” This warning comes amidst existing inflationary pressures, with consumers already facing higher costs due to the US-Israel war on Iran.

Guterres stated that El Nino conditions will “pour fuel on the fire of a warming world,” reinforcing the need for a shift away from fossil fuels towards renewable energy. The UN chief’s assessment frames the weather event not merely as a meteorological occurrence, but as a critical indicator of broader climate instability. The institutional response, ranging from EU operational deployments to global supply chain adjustments, underscores the necessity for coordinated policy action to mitigate systemic vulnerabilities.