UFC Fight Night: Muhammad faces Bonfim in Las Vegas as betting markets shift
Belal Muhammad enters as the favourite against Gabriel Bonfim at the Meta APEX, with SportsLine analyst Kyle Marley highlighting key picks across the five-bout main card.
Fifth-ranked Belal Muhammad is set to face 11th-ranked Gabriel Bonfim in the main event of UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs Bonfim. The bout takes place on Saturday at the Meta APEX in Las Vegas, with the five-bout main card scheduled to commence at approximately 8 p.m. ET. The event will be streamed exclusively on Paramount+.
In the betting markets, DraftKings Sportsbook has listed Muhammad as the -125 favourite, requiring a $125 wager to win $100. Bonfim is listed at +105. Muhammad enters the contest following a unanimous decision loss to Ian Machado Garry on 22 November, while Bonfim secured a victory over Randy Brown on 8 November.
SportsLine expert Kyle Marley has released betting analysis for the card, citing a historical return of nearly $10,000 for $100 bettors over the past three-plus years. Marley is backing Chelsea Chandler (-118) to defeat Priscila Cachoeira (-102) via unanimous decision in a women’s bantamweight bout on the preliminary card.
Marley’s rationale for Chandler rests on her being a more well-rounded fighter capable of wrestling, whereas Cachoeira is described as "more hittable." He suggests that if Chandler avoids significant knockout shots early, she is positioned to win on the scorecards.
Marley also identified an underdog with a "big striking advantage" for another bout on the card, though the specific fighters were not disclosed in the source material. He has provided detailed picks for the Muhammad vs Bonfim main event and other matchups exclusively through SportsLine.
Muhammad, 37, is a former UFC welterweight champion with a professional record of 24-5-1 across 30 career matches. His career includes five knockouts, one submission, and 18 decisions, alongside two Performance of the Night awards. He holds the third-highest takedown defence percentage in UFC welterweight history.
Bonfim, 28, brings a 19-1 MMA record to the octagon, having previously competed in the Legacy Fighting Alliance where he was a welterweight champion. His only loss came by knockout to Nicolas Dalby in November 2023. He has recorded four knockouts and 13 submissions in his MMA career.
