Thunder hold series edge as Spurs face elimination in Western Conference Finals

The 2026 NBA Western Conference Finals reach a critical juncture on Sunday with Game 4 between the Oklahoma City Thunder and the San Antonio Spurs. The Thunder currently hold a 2-1 series advantage following their 123-108 victory in Game 3, which marked the first time since mid-January that the Spurs have suffered consecutive defeats. San Antonio has not lost three games in a row all season and will look to level the series before the contest shifts back to Oklahoma City.

Tip-off is scheduled for 8 p.m. ET at the Frost Bank Center in San Antonio. The Spurs are currently listed as 2.5-point favourites by FanDuel Sportsbook, with the over/under for total points set at 218.5. San Antonio holds a 5-3 record both outright and against the spread against Oklahoma City this season, a historical trend that contrasts with their current series deficit.

SportsLine expert Mike Barner, who is on a 136-93 winning streak on NBA picks, has identified the over for total points as his primary prediction for the matchup. Barner’s recent performance has returned $2,493 for every $100 wagered during this span. He cites strong offensive trends, noting that the over has hit in 18 of the 25 playoff games involving these two teams combined.

Barner highlighted that the total has been eclipsed in each of the first three games of this series. San Antonio has seen the over hit in eight straight contests, while Oklahoma City has seen it in six straight. Despite the Spurs struggling to convert shots in Game 3, the teams combined for 231 points, which remains the lowest total of the series so far.

Injury updates add a layer of uncertainty to the Thunder’s lineup. Jalen Williams is listed as questionable for Game 4 due to a hamstring injury, while Ajay Mitchell is ruled out with a calf injury. The final status of Williams remains unresolved as the teams prepare for Sunday’s tip-off.