Sweden’s centre-left leads in early exit polls as government stakes remain open
An SVT projection puts Magdalena Andersson’s opposition bloc ahead, but official counting and coalition negotiations are still pending.
Sweden’s centre-left opposition bloc has taken an early lead in exit polls released after voting ended, with public broadcaster SVT projecting it to win 51.3 per cent of the vote. The right-wing bloc was projected on 46.8 per cent.
A separate election-day poll by broadcaster TV4 also placed the centre-left ahead. Official counting is under way, with initial results expected from Sweden’s Election Authority within hours.
The projections are not official results, and Sweden’s exit polls have previously proved inaccurate. In 2022, an exit poll forecast a victory for the centre-left bloc led by Social Democrat Magdalena Andersson, but the election was won by a right-wing coalition headed by current Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson.
The contest had tightened significantly during the campaign. Earlier polling gave Andersson’s bloc a lead of about 10 percentage points, but that advantage narrowed to two or three points in the final weeks.
Kristersson’s four-party alliance includes the Sweden Democrats, which won 20.5 per cent in 2022 and has supported his minority government from outside Cabinet. Kristersson said in April that the Moderates could bring the party into government if the right secured a majority.
The exit-poll figures indicate the centre-left is ahead, but they do not establish the seat distribution or a governing majority. The Sweden Democrats’ role in any future government will depend on the confirmed result and subsequent negotiations.
