‘Super El Niño’ puts global rainfall and food security under pressure
NOAA says Pacific warming has crossed 2°C, with regional forecasts pointing to heavier rain, drought and heightened wildfire risks through 2027.
A very strong El Niño has formed in the Pacific after ocean warming exceeded 2°C, according to data released by the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The event, informally known as a “super El Niño”, is forecast to peak in early 2027 and persist through March–May.
El Niño is a recurring climate pattern involving unusually warm water in the central and eastern Pacific. Its effects vary between events and regions, with conditions in the Indian and Atlantic oceans also influencing local outcomes.
Forecasts indicate heavier rain between October and December in parts of East Africa, including southern Ethiopia, central and southern Somalia and north-eastern Kenya. Wetter conditions are also expected along the coasts of Ecuador and northern Peru, before potentially spreading to parts of southern Brazil, Uruguay and north-eastern Argentina.
Drier and warmer conditions are forecast across parts of South and South-east Asia, Australia and Southern Africa. India’s rainfall was 15 per cent below average between 1 June and 9 September, while Indonesia faces a drier season and increased wildfire risk. Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology expects below-average rainfall in southern and eastern areas.
The World Food Programme estimates that at least 49 million more people could face acute hunger by the end of 2027, depending on weather, harvests and other factors. The estimate would lift the total across 45 analysed countries from 225 million to 274 million, with Eastern and Southern Africa and Latin America facing the largest increases.
The World Meteorological Organization expects warmer-than-normal temperatures almost everywhere from September to November and gives an 86 per cent chance that at least one year before 2030 will be hotter than 2024. That probability does not establish that 2027 will set a temperature record, and forecasters caution that the strength of El Niño does not determine impacts in any particular region.
