Stanford study: AI is squeezing entry-level jobs, widening gap for young workers
New research indicates artificial intelligence is disproportionately affecting employment for workers aged 22 to 25, with hiring rates falling in AI-exposed fields while roles requiring tacit knowledge remain stable.
Updated research from Stanford University economists suggests that artificial intelligence is causing significant entry-level job losses for younger workers, even as older employees appear largely unaffected. The August 2026 edition of the paper “Canaries in the Coal Mine?” revises findings from last year, indicating that the employment trends identified previously are persisting and expanding.
The study reveals that employment levels for workers aged 22 to 25 in the most “AI-exposed” occupations are now 19 per cent below those of their peers in fields less exposed to AI disruption. This gap has widened considerably, having measured just 13 per cent in the previous year’s data.
To determine these figures, the researchers utilised a large subsample of anonymised, high-frequency payroll data aggregated by HR management company ADP. They rated each occupation’s exposure to AI using a potential labour market impact gauge and the Anthropic Economic Index, which tracks how various occupations use the Claude model in everyday work.
Since 2022, employment in the top 40 per cent of “AI-impacted” jobs for young workers has fallen by approximately 11 per cent. In contrast, total employment in the 60 per cent of jobs with the least AI impact grew by 10 per cent over the same period. The researchers found that this decline is driven primarily by lower hiring rates rather than increased firings or voluntary resignations.
The impact varies by the type of knowledge required. Jobs reliant on “codified” knowledge, such as accounting and reception, show the steepest declines. Conversely, roles requiring “tacit” knowledge or AI augmentation, such as registered nursing and executive leadership, remain stable or grow. The study notes that occupations with a higher share of college graduates show more muted differences in employment trends between exposed and unexposed roles.
Lead researcher Erik Brynjolfsson warned that these trends are persistent and widening. He expressed concern about a labour market that maintains overall employment levels while quietly closing the on-ramp for people starting their careers, potentially preserving jobs for those already established in the pre-AI era while new entrants struggle to find footing.
