SportsLine model projects low-scoring affair as Thunder and Spurs prepare for Game 4
The San Antonio Spurs are slight favourites to level the series, but a leading projection model suggests the total points will fall below the market line.
The Oklahoma City Thunder and San Antonio Spurs are set to meet for Game 4 of the 2026 NBA Western Conference Finals on Sunday night, with tip-off scheduled for 8 p.m. ET at the Frost Bank Center in San Antonio. The Thunder currently hold a 2-1 series advantage following their 123-108 victory in Game 3, while the Spurs look to close the gap on home soil.
According to the latest odds from FanDuel Sportsbook, San Antonio enters the contest as a 2.5-point favourite, with the over/under for total points set at 218.5. The Spurs are also listed at -148 on the money line, reflecting the market’s expectation of a tight contest between the Northwest and Southwest Division champions.
SportsLine’s Projection Model has released its analysis for the matchup, recommending the Under on the total points line. The model, which simulates every NBA game 10,000 times, indicates that the Under hits in 51 per cent of its simulations for this specific fixture. This projection aligns with historical data showing the Under has landed in 26 of San Antonio’s last 47 home games and in three of the five regular-season meetings between the two franchises.
The model’s statistical breakdown suggests a defensive struggle, projecting only three Thunder players to score 13 points or more, led by Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s estimated 29.7 points. Similarly, Victor Wembanyama is forecast to lead the Spurs with 27.1 points, with just three other San Antonio players expected to reach the 15-point threshold.
Injury updates add a layer of complexity to Oklahoma City’s lineup, with Jalen Williams listed as questionable due to a hamstring issue after missing Game 3. Ajay Mitchell remains out for the Thunder with a calf injury. Meanwhile, the Spurs, who won the regular-season series 4-1 and lead the all-time postseason series 20-17, aim to reach the NBA Finals for the first time since the 2013-14 season.
The Thunder, holding a 64-18 record, are seeking back-to-back NBA championships. SportsLine notes that its model has returned well over $10,000 in betting profit for $100 players on top-rated NBA picks over the past eight-plus seasons, entering the conference finals on a 26-10 roll regarding spread picks this year. The model also projects that one side of the spread will hit in over 60 per cent of simulations, though specific team attribution for that outcome is reserved for the platform’s full report.
