SportsLine model projects Knicks dominance in NBA Finals Game 3
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates 10,000 iterations of the upcoming clash, highlighting key player props for the series moving to Madison Square Garden.
SportsLine analysts have released player prop recommendations for Game 3 of the 2026 NBA Finals, as the New York Knicks prepare to host the San Antonio Spurs at Madison Square Garden on Monday at 8:30 p.m. ET. The series shifts to New York with the Knicks holding a 2-0 advantage following their victory in Game 2, where Karl-Anthony Towns recorded 21 points and 13 rebounds.
The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every NBA game 10,000 times, projects Karl-Anthony Towns to score 19.6 points on average, exceeding his posted over/under of 17.5 points. Towns has averaged 19.5 points, 12.5 rebounds, and 4.0 assists per game in the Finals. The model also recommends backing Towns to record 12 or more rebounds, a line priced at -102 odds, noting he has secured 12 or more rebounds in five of his past six games.
Knicks forward Mikal Bridges is another focal point for the model’s analysis. Bridges scored 20 points in Game 2 on efficient 8-of-13 shooting, and SportsLine expert Prop Bet Guy backs him to exceed his 13.5-point line. The recommendation cites Bridges’ recent form, having cleared this point line in nine of his last eleven games, and highlights the Spurs’ poor defensive performance against mid-range jumpers this season.
For the Spurs, the model predicts Victor Wembanyama will surpass 38.5 combined points and rebounds. Wembanyama, who averaged 23.6 points in the playoffs and finished Game 2 with 29 points and nine rebounds, is expected to be the main offensive focal point for San Antonio. The model projects him to finish with 39.7 combined points and rebounds, leveraging his history of double-digit rebounding in the postseason.
The SportsLine Projection Model enters the NBA Finals on a 26-10 record, or 72 per cent, for NBA spread picks this season. It projects the Knicks to win and cover as 2.5-point favourites in 56 per cent of its simulations, despite the Spurs being favoured by 1.5 points at FanDuel Sportsbook for the upcoming contest.
