SportsLine model favours Fleetwood at Canadian Open despite star absences

Mike McClure’s SportsLine computer model has generated betting predictions for the 2026 RBC Canadian Open after simulating the tournament 10,000 times. The model identifies Tommy Fleetwood as the favourite at +1200 odds, with Matt Fitzpatrick following at +1300. The tournament field is considered strong, featuring top players such as Justin Rose and Collin Morikawa, despite the absence of Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy, who are resting ahead of the U.S. Open. The model advises against betting on Sam Burns due to poor recent form, while highlighting Collin Morikawa at +2200 as a high-value pick.

The 2026 RBC Canadian Open tees off on Thursday at TPC Toronto at Osprey Valley. With the previous week designated as a Signature Event and the U.S. Open approaching, several top-ranked players on the PGA Tour have opted to take the week off. This withdrawal has created a competitive landscape where the remaining field includes four players ranked in the top 10 of the Official World Golf Ranking: Matt Fitzpatrick, Tommy Fleetwood, Justin Rose, and Collin Morikawa. Past major winners Shane Lowry, Brooks Koepka, and Aaron Rai are also set to compete.

SportsLine’s proprietary model, built by DFS professional Mike McClure, claims a history of profitability and states it has correctly predicted 17 major championships entering the weekend. Specific major successes cited include the 2026 Masters, marking its fifth consecutive correct prediction for this event, as well as last year’s PGA Championship and Open Championship. The model’s simulations suggest that while Fleetwood is the statistical favourite, there are notable deviations from standard betting markets.

One significant recommendation from the model is to fade Sam Burns, who holds the third-lowest odds at +1500. Burns lost the event in a playoff last year, a result that contributes to his status as a favourite this year. However, the model cites poor recent form as a deterrent, noting that Burns has only recorded three top-10 finishes all season and has finished outside the top 15 in four of his past five events. This caution contrasts with his market position, suggesting a potential disconnect between public sentiment and algorithmic assessment.

Conversely, the model identifies high value in Collin Morikawa at +2200 odds. Morikawa has not played this event since 2019, when he shot 8 under par. Although he has cooled in recent tournaments, he was one of the hottest players on tour earlier this year, winning at Pebble Beach in February and finishing T7 or better in five straight tournaments. In a field that lacks some top-ranked players, the model considers Morikawa’s odds to offer significant potential. Additionally, the model is targeting a longshot with odds around +3000 for a potential surprise run, though the specific player is not named in the source text.

Odds are sourced from FanDuel and are subject to change. SportsLine memberships include Paramount+ Premium, offering access to NFL, UFC, PGA, and Champions League coverage. The article also promotes DraftKings and Kalshi promo codes alongside the betting predictions.