SportsLine model backs Under in Spurs-Timberwolves Game 6
The algorithm projects a combined 211 points against FanDuel’s 218.5 line, citing historical trends for both franchises.
SportsLine’s projection model has released its betting predictions for Game 6 of the 2026 NBA Western Conference semifinal, recommending the Under on the total points line of 218.5. The San Antonio Spurs lead the series 3-2 following a 126-97 victory in Game 5 and will look to close out the series against the Minnesota Timberwolves at Target Center in Minneapolis. Tip-off is scheduled for 9:30 p.m. ET.
The model, which simulates every NBA game 10,000 times, projects a combined score of 211 points for the matchup. This projection aligns with historical data showing the Under has hit in 25 of San Antonio’s last 47 road games and in 51 of the Spurs’ past 93 contests. For Minnesota, the Under has occurred in 30 of 46 home games this season and in 50 of the past 93 Timberwolves games when the line is set over 205.
In terms of individual performance, the model projects Victor Wembanyama to score 23.2 points for San Antonio, with three Spurs players expected to score 17 points or more. Anthony Edwards is projected to lead the Timberwolves with 26.4 points, while two other Minnesota players are anticipated to score 14 points or more. The model indicates the Under will hit in 63 per cent of simulations.
San Antonio enters the contest as a 5.5-point favourite in the latest odds from FanDuel Sportsbook. The Spurs, who finished the regular season 62-20, are 32-13 on the road this season, including the playoffs. They are seeking their first conference final appearance since the 2016-17 season. The Timberwolves, with a 49-33 regular season record, are 30-16 at home in 2025-26 and aim to reach the conference finals for the third time in four years.
SportsLine notes that its model has returned well over $10,000 in betting profit for $100 players on top-rated NBA picks over the past eight-plus seasons. The system entered the second round of the 2026 NBA playoffs on a 26-9 roll, representing a 74 per cent hit rate on top-rated NBA spread picks. While the specific spread selection is gated behind the SportsLine platform, the model states that one side of the spread hits more than 60 per cent of the time in its simulations.
