SportsLine expert targets Harper and Soto for home run props in Mets-Phillies opener
With the New York Mets and Philadelphia Phillies serving as the sole teams in action on Thursday, July 16, SportsLine’s Adam Thompson has released home run player props for the opening game of the second half of the season.
The New York Mets and Philadelphia Phillies are the first two teams to commence the second half of the 2026 Major League Baseball season, with the All-Star break officially concluded. As the only two teams scheduled to take the field on Thursday, July 16, the rivalry offers the sole baseball option for bettors before a full slate of games resumes on Friday. This limited schedule restricts prop betting markets, prompting SportsLine expert Adam Thompson to release targeted home run picks for the matchup.
Thompson, who originally served as a SportsLine expert from 2016 to 2019 before returning in 2026 following a role as the primary betting analyst for the Gambling.com Group, specialises in MLB, the NFL, and the NBA. His analytics-driven approach has yielded consistent results, recording over 70 units of profit in MLB and more than 60 units in the NBA over the past two seasons.
For the Phillies, Thompson highlights outfielder Bryce Harper as a candidate to hit a home run against Mets pitcher Christian Scott. Harper, 33, has recorded 20 home runs in 97 games this season, placing him on pace for approximately 35. His performance at Citizens Bank Park is particularly strong, with an OPS of .924, which exceeds his road OPS by over 100 points.
Scott faced the Phillies on June 27, allowing two runs over 4 1/3 innings in a 6-2 Mets victory, which included one home run to Harper. Thompson notes that the Mets bullpen has allowed a league-high 13 home runs in July, providing a favourable environment for Harper’s power surge. Harper was eliminated in the first round of the Home Run Derby on Monday, an outcome Thompson suggests could motivate the outfielder.
Thompson also identifies Mets outfielder Juan Soto as a pick against Phillies pitcher Aaron Nola. Nola has struggled this season, posting a 5.75 ERA in 19 starts and a 6.81 ERA in eight home games. Soto holds a significant historical advantage, with five career home runs off Nola and a lifetime OPS of 1.142 against him. Nola allowed two home runs to Soto in a June 18 matchup, and the Phillies bullpen has an 8.05 ERA in July, having allowed eight home runs during the month.
