SportsLine expert targets Freeman and Yastrzemski for Friday MLB home run props

SportsLine expert Matt Severance has outlined his home run prop selections for Friday’s Major League Baseball schedule, focusing on specific batter-pitcher matchups and market conditions. Severance’s primary recommendation centres on Los Angeles Dodgers first baseman Freddie Freeman, who faces Philadelphia Phillies pitcher Zack Wheeler. The expert also identifies San Francisco Giants outfielder Matt Yastrzemski as a deeper value pick against Cincinnati Reds pitcher Chris Paddack.

Severance cites Freeman’s strong historical performance against Wheeler as the basis for the selection. In 54 at-bats against the Phillies right-hander, Freeman has recorded 21 hits, including two home runs and four doubles, resulting in a 1.088 on-base plus slugging (OPS) figure. Freeman enters the contest with recent momentum, having hit a home run on Wednesday against the Colorado Rockies and recording two-hit performances in his previous two outings.

The Dodgers-Phillies matchup is considered a marquee fixture, with Los Angeles listed as a -120 home favourite. Conditions at Dodger Stadium are expected to support long balls, with winds blowing out at nearly 13 mph. Severance notes that while Wheeler has been dominant this season with a 1.67 ERA and back-to-back scoreless outings, Freeman’s specific split against him remains a compelling factor for prop betting.

In a secondary recommendation, Severance highlights Yastrzemski against Paddack. Yastrzemski holds a 1.324 OPS against the Reds pitcher, with a record of 10-for-25 including three home runs. Paddack has struggled recently since being picked up by Cincinnati, posting a 6.86 ERA and allowing six home runs in 40.2 innings. Severance describes Yastrzemski as a “deeper” pick, noting the outfielder’s platoon role and recent offensive output.

Conversely, Severance explicitly advises against betting on home run props involving the Colorado Rockies. Despite the hitter-friendly conditions at Coors Field, the expert declines to back players in the Rockies-Giants game due to the visiting Giants’ low offensive output. The Giants rank last in runs scored, which Severance views as a deterrent despite the venue’s reputation for producing home runs.

Severance also provided context regarding his recent performance and track record. He claims to be up $1,681 on MLB picks over the past four seasons. He acknowledged that his previous Friday picks, involving Matt Olson and Salvador Perez, failed to hit home runs, though he maintained that both players held strong career splits against their respective opposing pitchers.