SportsLine expert Gene Menez releases 2026 Belmont Stakes predictions ahead of Triple Crown finale
Renegade emerges as the 2-1 morning-line favourite for the $2 million race at Saratoga Race Course on Saturday, June 6, while SportsLine’s Gene Menez advocates for a different strategy based on trip dynamics.
SportsLine expert Gene Menez has released his predictions for the 2026 Belmont Stakes, the final leg of the Triple Crown, scheduled for Saturday, June 6 at Saratoga Race Course in Saratoga Springs, New York. Renegade is the 2-1 morning-line favourite, with Chief Wallabee (3-1), Golden Tempo (9-2), Commandment (6-1), and Emerging Market (6-1) rounding out the top five. Menez is fading the Kentucky Derby winner, Golden Tempo, citing an unlikely pace setup, and instead recommends a horse that should secure a perfect trip alongside a double-digit longshot. The $2 million race has a post time of 7:04 p.m. ET.
Menez, a former reporter and editor at Sports Illustrated who served as the magazine’s handicapper for the Triple Crown races between 2010 and 2012, brings a history of accurate predictions to the 2026 field. His track record includes correctly picking Super Saver to win the 2010 Kentucky Derby and hitting a Pick 4 in 2017. In 2024, he identified 18-1 longshot Mystik Dan as a live contender, and last year he hammered the exacta and trifecta for a $1,045 payout.
The morning-line odds reflect a competitive field of nine horses, with Renegade positioned as the clear favourite following a second-place finish in the Kentucky Derby. Renegade is seeking redemption when the starting gate opens at Saratoga. The odds board places Chief Wallabee at 3-1, followed by the Derby winner Golden Tempo at 9-2, with Commandment and Emerging Market both listed at 6-1.
Menez is advising against backing Golden Tempo, who rallied from last place to win the Kentucky Derby, making trainer Cherie DeVaux the first woman to win the race. Prior to the Derby, Golden Tempo had back-to-back third-place finishes in the 2026 Risen Star and the 2026 Louisiana Derby. Menez argues that the pace setup that aided the Derby victory is unlikely to repeat, stating he is "completely tossing" the winner.
Instead, Menez’s primary recommendation is a horse positioned to secure a perfect trip, accompanied by a double-digit longshot capable of an upset. His full projected leaderboard and specific selections are available on SportsLine, where he continues to share his analysis of the race dynamics leading up to the 7:04 p.m. ET post time.
