SportsLine analyst targets Arenado and Torkelson for July 23 MLB home run props
Thompson highlights Nolan Arenado’s recent form against Michael McGreevy and Spencer Torkelson’s power surge at Comerica Park.
SportsLine expert Adam Thompson has released home run player prop selections for Major League Baseball games scheduled for Thursday, July 23. The analysis focuses on two specific matchups: Arizona Diamondbacks third baseman Nolan Arenado against St Louis Cardinals starting pitcher Michael McGreevy, and Detroit Tigers first baseman Spencer Torkelson against Kansas City Royals starting pitcher Randy Dobnak. Thompson’s recommendations are grounded in recent player performance metrics and opposing pitchers' tendencies to allow home runs, with additional consideration given to venue factors favouring power hitters.
Arenado is highlighted for his recent form, recording four home runs with a .316 batting average and a 1.146 OPS over the last two weeks. He is facing Michael McGreevy, who has allowed six home runs in his last seven games despite a low overall run count. McGreevy has dealt in June with a 1.93 ERA in three starts, giving up only four runs total, but allowing two home runs in that span. Over the last seven games, McGreevy has allowed nearly as many home runs as walks.
Spencer Torkelson is selected based on a high home run rate relative to his hits; three of his five hits in the last week were home runs. He faces Randy Dobnak, who has allowed two home runs in 14 innings this season. The Royals starter has allowed three runs in his 14 innings this season, but the two home runs stand out. The Royals bullpen has the third-highest home run rate since the start of July.
The pick for Torkelson notes that Comerica Park in Detroit favours right-handed power hitters. Torkelson has hit five home runs in his last 10 base hits over the past two weeks. Although he is hitting at a .192 clip with just five hits in the last week, the venue factor and his recent power output make him a target for Thompson.
The article includes promotional codes for FanDuel, offering up to $1,000 in bet reset tokens, and DraftKings, offering $150 when spending $5 or more. Thompson, who rejoined SportsLine in 2026 after a stint as the primary betting analyst for the Gambling.com Group, has been up over 70 units in MLB and more than 60 units in the NBA at sports betting apps over the past two seasons.
