Met Office forecasts strongest El Niño in over a century

Britain’s Met Office has forecast that the current El Niño weather pattern will be the strongest in more than a century. The agency predicts that sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific will potentially rise to a level more than three degrees above the average, a threshold described by officials as unprecedented in modern climate records.

Adam Scaife, the Met Office head of long-range forecasting, stated that the event is "unheard-of" and "unprecedented." Scaife, a physicist who specialises in climate modelling, noted that the current anomalous warmth is already up to nearly two degrees above average. According to the Climate Brink dashboard, temperatures in the region are currently running about 2.6C above a rolling 30-year average.

The El Niño pattern is officially declared when sea temperatures in the tropical eastern Pacific rise 0.5C above the baseline average. This phenomenon triggers worldwide changes in winds, atmospheric pressure, and rainfall, generally causing warmer global temperatures. Scaife emphasised that these are not short-term weather forecasts but rather "long-term, persistent conditions" with well-known impacts on other systems.

The Met Office predicts that this intense warming will trigger severe droughts across South America and the West Pacific. Scaife warned that these conditions would have serious knock-on effects for global food security, highlighting the potential strain on agricultural systems in the tropics.

For the United Kingdom, the agency forecasts increased rainfall and storminess around November. This shift in weather patterns is expected to occur as the El Niño event reaches its peak intensity, marking a significant departure from typical seasonal expectations for the country.