Japan’s longevity record masks deepening demographic imbalance

Japan has recorded a new demographic milestone with 107,677 residents aged 100 or older, according to the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare. The figure represents an increase of 7,914 from 2025 and marks the 56th consecutive annual rise in the number of centenarians. Women account for almost 88 per cent of this group, underscoring the gendered nature of the country’s longevity trends.

Health Minister Kenichiro Ueno attributed the milestone to advances in medical technology, healthy lifestyles, and dietary habits. While the minister expressed satisfaction with the population’s ability to live long and active lives, the achievement arrives against a backdrop of accelerating structural challenges. The country’s total fertility rate fell to a record low of 1.14 in 2025, a figure significantly below the 2.1 threshold generally considered necessary to maintain a stable population without immigration.

The imbalance between a growing elderly population and a shrinking birthrate is placing mounting pressure on public finances. Almost three in every 10 residents are now aged 65 or older, a proportion projected to approach 40 per cent by 2070. Government figures indicate that more than 800,000 people were aged 95 or above last year, while only 700,000 babies were born. This demographic shift means fewer working-age individuals are supporting rising costs in pensions, healthcare, and social care.

Preliminary census data reveals that the population declined in 45 of Japan’s 47 prefectures in 2025 compared with five years earlier, with only Tokyo and Okinawa recording increases. The National Institute of Population and Social Security Research projects that the total population will fall from its 2008 peak of approximately 128 million to 87 million by 2070. This represents a decline of roughly 30 per cent, driven by both low fertility and natural attrition.

Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi has identified population decline and the falling birthrate as major national challenges, warning that the trend threatens the country’s economic and social foundations. Despite the introduction of child allowances, subsidised childcare, and parental leave programmes, none have yet reversed the long-term decline. Social scientists note that insecure employment, stagnant wages, and the unequal sharing of household responsibilities continue to deter younger adults from starting families.

Labour shortages are now affecting key industries, including construction, agriculture, transport, and healthcare. While Japan’s foreign population has risen in recent years, foreign nationals still account for only about 3 per cent of the total population. Proposals to accept substantially more migrants remain politically contentious, leaving the government to navigate a complex trade-off between economic necessity and social cohesion.