India advances $9bn Great Nicobar project to secure maritime domain against China

New Delhi is investing approximately $9 billion to transform Great Nicobar Island into a major strategic asset, featuring a transshipment port, airport, and township. Situated at the southernmost tip of the Andaman and Nicobar chain, the island lies closer to Indonesia's Sumatra than to the Indian mainland. This location places the development in close proximity to the Strait of Malacca, one of the world's busiest shipping corridors through which a significant share of China's energy flows passes.

The project represents a distinct shift in India's strategic thinking, moving away from a focus on the mainland toward a more outward-looking maritime posture. Former Air Marshal R Nambiar argues that the primary value of the island is not necessarily projecting power, but rather denying potential rivals control of the region. He emphasised the need to counter a "peer-plus" navy capable of operating globally, stating that India must prepare to face an opponent that matches or surpasses its own capabilities.

Strategic assessments highlight the project's potential to position Indian assets just 150 kilometres from the Strait of Malacca. Former Air Chief Marshal R K S Bhadauria noted that this positioning would provide a significant boost to India's overall domain awareness in both air and maritime spheres. This development is viewed as India's direct answer to Beijing's two-decade effort to build influence across the Indian Ocean, which includes securing port access in Sri Lanka, Pakistan, and Djibouti, as well as deploying submarines and surveillance ships.

However, the driver of the project is characterised by experts as being economic first, with strategic utility coming second. Professor Srikanth Kondapalli drew a parallel between India's current plans and China's development of around 3,000 islands since the 1990s to drive economic activity. The proposed infrastructure at Galathea Bay aims to build a transshipment terminal and energy infrastructure to boost trade and reduce dependence on foreign hubs, though the long-term strategic impact remains uncertain.

The initiative faces substantial criticism regarding its environmental and social impact. The project involves the felling of approximately 852,000 trees and poses significant risks to Indigenous communities, specifically the Shompen people who inhabit the region. While some analysts suggest the infrastructure enhances surveillance and intelligence capabilities, others caution against overstating its impact, noting that sustained interdiction would require far greater capabilities and coordination than the current build-up provides.

Ultimately, the Great Nicobar buildup strengthens India's operational posture but does not guarantee a chokehold on the region. Former Indian ambassador to China, Ashok Kantha, warned that converting the geographic advantage into sustained operational power will depend on logistics, force posture, and broader political and economic choices. The project stands as a complex intersection of economic ambition and geopolitical rivalry in the Bay of Bengal.