France pivots to East Africa as it seeks new institutional footholds in the continent

The first Africa Forward Summit is scheduled to commence on 11 and 12 May at the University of Nairobi, marking a deliberate strategic pivot for French foreign policy. Hosted jointly by President Emmanuel Macron and Kenyan President William Ruto, the gathering represents the first time France has convened such a high-level summit in an English-speaking African nation that is not among its traditional partners. This move signals an attempt to reposition Paris as a key partner in Anglophone East Africa following a significant contraction of influence in Francophone West Africa.

The agenda for the two-day meeting explicitly moves away from models of dominance or unilateral aid, prioritising enhanced security, economic investment, green energy, and digital economy projects. Officials have stated that the focus is now on stable investment opportunities in infrastructure and renewable energy rather than security-dependent deals or raw material extraction. This shift in emphasis reflects a broader effort to forge new alliances with approximately 30 heads of state and government, alongside international guests, to compete with alternative financing offers from China, India, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia.

Analysts suggest that President Macron aims to leverage Kenya as a gateway to the continent, capitalising on the region's young population and the absence of the deep-seated anti-colonial sentiment that has plagued France's relations in the Sahel. Since 2022 and 2023, massive protests and military coups in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger have led to the withdrawal of French troops and the severing of military cooperation. These events were driven by accusations of neocolonialism and interference, leaving France with diminished prestige in Francophone countries where the CFA franc remains a source of irritation for many citizens.

In contrast, East Africa is increasingly viewed as a strategic hub between Europe, the Indian Ocean, and the wider continent, offering a more favourable environment for renewed engagement. France is already the fifth-largest foreign direct investor in Kenya, supporting 46,000 jobs with trade estimated at around $300 million. The summit seeks to reinforce this existing commercial relationship while expanding into new institutional frameworks, with Paris pledging support for making the global financial system more equitable for indebted nations as part of the dialogue.

President Ruto emphasised that the summit's goal is to create an Africa that shapes its own destiny and influences global discourse, moving beyond the historical constraints of colonial legacies. The choice of Nairobi underscores a specific geographic focus, aiming to foster cooperation where criticism and prejudice toward France are less entrenched than in former colonies. Experts note that while France may eventually seek to expand into its former colonies should military regimes in the Sahel change, the current strategy prioritises fast-growing regions like East Africa to offset the loss of influence in the west.

As the summit approaches, the French administration will monitor the institutional responses generated during the event to determine the viability of this new approach. The initiative relies on the premise that established players must realign their global business strategies in response to a tense international situation, finding entry points in emerging economies that aspire to operate on a global scale. By focusing on private sector projects that ensure long-term impact without relying on security considerations, France hopes to present itself as Africa's most important partner in a diversified, economically oriented future.