Fox Sports Analyst Backs Vikings to Upset NFC North Odds for 2026
The prediction challenges the Detroit Lions’ status as favourites and projects regression for defending champions Chicago Bears based on turnover statistics.
Fox Sports analyst Will Hill has identified the Minnesota Vikings as a surprise contender to win the NFC North in the 2026 NFL season, backing the team at +510 odds. The assessment positions the Vikings as a significant value play, contrasting their projected trajectory against the Detroit Lions, who remain the division favourites at +170 despite finishing in last place during the 2025 campaign.
Hill’s analysis centres on two primary structural changes for the Vikings: the acquisition of quarterback Kyler Murray and the continued defensive leadership of coordinator Brian Flores. The Vikings finished 9-8 in 2025 and missed the playoffs after Sam Darnold departed in free agency. However, the team achieved that record despite quarterback play from J.J. McCarthy, Carson Wentz, and Max Brosmer ranking near the bottom of the league. Hill argues that Murray’s addition provides a major upgrade that could replicate the success seen in 2024.
Defensively, the Vikings have established a consistent standard under Flores, who has led the unit to top-seven finishes in points allowed over the past two seasons. In 2025, the defence finished third in yards allowed. Hill suggests that maintaining this defensive solidity, combined with an outstanding group of skill players, provides a stable foundation for the new offensive leadership.
The prediction also relies on projected regression for the Chicago Bears, who won the NFC North in 2025 for the first time since 2018. Listed at +305 to repeat, the Bears are viewed by Hill as vulnerable due to a +22 turnover margin from the previous season, a statistical anomaly that is unlikely to be sustained. This expected decline opens a pathway for the Vikings to overtake their division rivals.
The Green Bay Packers are listed at +225 to win the division, having started the 2025 season 9-3-1 before collapsing in the second half and losing in the wild-card round to the Bears. The Vikings are scheduled to face the Packers in Week 1 of the 2026 season, a matchup Hill notes will occur before Lions linebacker Micah Parsons returns from injury. The Vikings’ schedule also avoids the Seattle Seahawks and Los Angeles Rams, factors Hill includes in his assessment of their potential to reverse their recent fortunes.
