EU Climate Service Confirms Western Europe’s Hottest June and July on Record
With global sea surface temperatures also hitting new highs, officials warn that a developing El Niño could push global averages to unprecedented levels by early 2027.
Western Europe has recorded its hottest June and July on record, with an average temperature of 21.62 degrees Celsius, according to data released Monday by the EU’s Copernicus Climate Change Service. This figure breaks the previous regional record set in 2022 and reflects what the service describes as the exceptional persistence of heat across the region. Since May, western Europe has experienced four distinct heatwaves, driving prolonged drought, major wildfires, and thousands of projected heat-related deaths.
The extreme conditions were driven by persistent high-pressure systems that trapped heat over countries including France, Germany, and Spain. These systems dried soils significantly, reducing their ability to provide natural cooling and allowing heat to build more readily. Soil moisture levels in western Europe were notably lower than in July 2022, when the region last faced severe drought. Samantha Burgess, strategic lead for climate at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, which operates Copernicus, noted that heat and drought are increasingly reinforcing one another as a clear example of climate change intensifying extremes.
River flows across the continent have been severely impacted, with the Seine, Rhine, and Danube among the hardest-hit waterways. Unusually low water levels have disrupted transport, irrigation, and energy production in several European nations. The hot and dry environment has also heightened wildfire risks, with France and Spain battling particularly severe blazes this summer. While Europe as a whole recorded its 11th warmest July with an average of 20.49 degrees Celsius, eastern Europe and Scandinavia experienced much cooler conditions, highlighting the regional disparity in the heatwave’s impact.
Globally, July was the joint second-warmest on record, tied with July 2024, with an average surface air temperature of 16.90 degrees Celsius, approximately 1.47 degrees above the pre-industrial average. July 2023 remains the hottest month on record at 16.95 degrees Celsius. So far, 2026 is the third-hottest year recorded globally, behind 2024 and 2025. The Copernicus service also reported a record for global sea surface temperatures in July, reaching 20.96 degrees Celsius outside polar regions, surpassing the previous July record set in 2023.
A developing El Niño in the equatorial Pacific is contributing to these rising temperatures, with Copernicus director Carlo Buontempo describing the emerging phenomenon as "very large" and potentially unprecedented in strength. Scientists project that this El Niño could push global temperatures higher later in the year, with a new global average temperature record expected either later this year or in early 2027. Buontempo emphasised that greenhouse gas emissions remain the main driver of this warming, noting that the current climate is warmer than any seen during human civilisation.
