Democrats gain ground in final month of US midterm campaign

Democrats enter the final month before the 3 November US midterm elections with improved prospects in House forecasts and a more competitive path in several Senate races. Republicans are spending heavily to defend seats as polling points to low approval for President Donald Trump and voter concern over the economy, immigration and corruption.

The Cook Political Report recently shifted 15 House races towards Democrats and projected the party could gain between five and 15 seats. All 435 House seats are contested. The forecast is an assessment of the race, not an election result.

The Senate outlook remains less settled. Democrats need a net gain of at least four seats for a majority, with 35 seats up for election. Polling cited in the source describes contests in North Carolina, Texas, Ohio and Alaska as more competitive for Democrats, while Iowa and Maine are especially close. The University of Virginia’s Sabato’s Crystal Ball says the Senate has become more competitive, but polling quality varies and Midwest races are difficult to gauge.

The Associated Press-NORC poll released on Thursday put Trump’s approval at 31 per cent and approval of his handling of the economy at 26 per cent. Voters rank the economy among their leading concerns, alongside issues including gas prices, immigration and corruption.

Campaign spending is substantial. At least $4bn had been spent on congressional and gubernatorial midterm advertising by 17 September, according to the Wesleyan Media Project. AdImpact projected Republican groups and allies would spend $888m on advertising from mid-September to election day, compared with $666m for Democrats and their supporters.

Republicans had more cash on hand, but the spending advantage has not settled the contests. The forecasts and polling remain snapshots ahead of election day, with the race for control of Congress still open.