Democrats chart multiple paths to Senate majority as Trump approval slides
With primary elections in key battleground states largely complete, Democrats have identified several viable routes to securing a majority in the US Senate for the 2026 midterms, aided by a drop in President Donald Trump’s approval ratings.
As primary elections in key 2026 battleground states conclude, Democrats have emerged with several open paths to taking the majority in the US Senate. The party currently holds 47 seats and requires the flip of four Republican seats while retaining its current holdings, including in Michigan and Georgia, states President Donald Trump won in 2024. While the national map remains uphill for Democrats, political strategists indicate that the landscape has become more forgiving due to shifting national sentiment.
President Trump’s approval rating has fallen below 40 percent, a historically perilous level driven by an unpopular six-month war with Iran and rising consumer prices. A recent Reuters/Ipsos poll suggests his approval is nearing 30 percent. This environment mirrors the 2006 midterm cycle, when Democrats gained six seats and control of the Senate under similar conditions of war and high fuel costs.
The picture for Democratic pickups appears brightest in Alaska and North Carolina, where candidates with prior statewide victory records are polling ahead. In conservative-leaning Alaska, former representative Mary Peltola leads incumbent Dan S. Sullivan by more than five percentage points in the nonpartisan primary. The race has been reclassified as a toss-up by the Cook Political Report, and a retired teacher named Dan J. Sullivan has also secured a spot on the general-election ballot, potentially splitting the Republican vote.
In North Carolina, former governor Roy Cooper is running against Trump-endorsed candidate Michael Whatley. Cooper, who has never lost an election, has consistently led in polling, with one early August survey showing him ahead by 13 points. In Ohio, former senator Sherrod Brown has pulled ahead in August polling in a race rated as a toss-up. A Senate Republican campaign memo warned that voter opposition toward data centres is sinking incumbent senator Jon Husted, a narrative Brown has amplified through a significant advertising campaign.
Democrats also see potential in traditionally red Texas, where James Talarico is competitive against Ken Paxton. Talarico has raised $69 million in campaign contributions compared with Paxton’s $9 million, according to recent Federal Election Commission filings. While an Emerson College poll at the start of August had Paxton ahead by a single percentage point, a YouGov poll from the same period showed Talarico three points ahead.
In Maine, Troy Jackson has coalesced as the Democratic nominee following the dropout of Graham Platner, who withdrew after being accused of rape, a claim he has denied. Jackson faces longtime incumbent Republican senator Susan Collins. Although some party leaders worry about liberal voter support following the messy primary, Trump’s trade policies may bolster Democrats given the economic integration of border states with Canada.
