CBS Sports analysis ranks Saints as top 2026 worst-to-first contender
New Orleans Saints lead list of eight last-place teams from 2025, while Arizona Cardinals face near-zero confidence for divisional turnaround.
CBS Sports published an analysis on 27 July 2026 evaluating the potential for eight National Football League teams to achieve a worst-to-first turnaround in the 2026 season. The assessment focused on teams that finished last in their respective divisions during the 2025 season, ranking them based on their likelihood of winning their division in the upcoming campaign.
The New Orleans Saints were ranked first in the analysis. The author cited their favourable strength of schedule and the development of quarterback Tyler Shough as primary factors for the top ranking. Shough started nine games in 2025, improving weekly and helping the Saints win four of their final five matches. The analysis noted that New Orleans finished only two games out of first place last season and added key personnel, including guard David Edwards and running back Travis Etienne, to support Shough’s development.
Conversely, the Arizona Cardinals were ranked last, with the author expressing near-zero confidence in their chances due to the difficulty of the NFC West. The analysis highlighted that the division contains three Super Bowl contenders, leaving little room for Arizona. Oddsmakers priced the Cardinals at 100-to-1 to win the division, a figure the source described as unheard of, noting that 25 other NFL teams have better odds of winning the Super Bowl than the Cardinals have of winning their division.
The analysis also covered the Las Vegas Raiders, Cleveland Browns, Tennessee Titans, New York Jets, New York Giants, and Detroit Lions. The Lions were ranked seventh despite being favourites to win the NFC North, with concerns raised about their performance in low-scoring games and divisional play. The Giants were viewed as having a chance to improve under new head coach John Harbaugh, who brought over personnel from the Baltimore Ravens, though the Cowboys and Eagles were seen as the primary barriers to a division title.
Other teams faced significant structural hurdles. The Raiders were ranked fifth, with the author noting the stacked nature of the AFC West and the lack of a worst-to-first precedent in franchise history. The Browns were placed sixth, with questions surrounding the quarterback battle between Deshaun Watson and Shedeur Sanders. The Titans were ranked fourth, with the author pointing to their historical inability to go worst-to-first since moving to Tennessee in 1997. The Jets were ranked fifth, with the return of general manager Gen Smith and a revamped defence seen as potential catalysts, though the AFC East was deemed difficult.
The source provided historical context, noting that since the NFL expanded to 32 teams in 2002, 31 teams have gone from worst to first, an average of 1.29 teams per year. The analysis included division odds via DraftKings Sportsbook and referenced specific team records and personnel changes to justify the rankings. The source concluded that while a worst-to-first run is historically plausible, the specific conditions for each team varied significantly based on divisional strength and roster construction.
