CBS Sports analysis highlights NFL draft busts and Rams’ historic Super Bowl odds

A Thursday edition of the "Pick Six" newsletter published by CBS Sports on 23 July 2026 outlines key NFL topics ahead of the start of training camps. The report includes a ranking of the most overrated quarterbacks, citing potential backlash from fans in Denver and Chicago. It also details a ranking of all 191 first-round draft picks from 2020 to 2025, with Joe Burrow ranked first and Trey Lance among the bottom five. Additionally, the article notes the Los Angeles Rams as overwhelming Super Bowl LXI favourites, discusses free agent Deebo Samuel's potential landing spots, and reviews historical farewell seasons for retiring stars such as Aaron Rodgers and Travis Kelce.

The newsletter features opinion-based rankings by contributors Garrett Podell and Mike Renner. Podell’s assessment of the most overrated quarterbacks suggests that fans in Denver and Chicago may react negatively to the findings. Meanwhile, Renner’s comprehensive ranking of every first-round draft pick from 2020 to 2025 places Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow at the top of the list. The bottom five of the rankings includes Anthony Richardson, Isaiah Wilson, Jeff Okudah, Zach Wilson, and Trey Lance, with Wilson and Lance described as potential busts.

With training camps commencing, the Los Angeles Rams are identified as overwhelming favourites to win Super Bowl LXI, with betting odds of +550. This marks the first time since 2002 that an NFC team has held such a significant advantage. The Rams are the only team this year with odds under +1000, a rarity that has occurred only five times since the NFL expanded to 32 teams. Historical data indicates that in previous instances of such heavy favouritism, all four teams fell short of expectations during the regular season.

The report also addresses the status of free agent wide receiver Deebo Samuel, who is searching for a new team after his stint with the Commanders. Despite being 30 years old, Samuel believes he has three to four good years left in his career. The newsletter discusses potential landing spots for the former Pro Bowler, noting that while receivers often slow down at this age, Samuel remains confident in his longevity.

Finally, the publication reviews the potential retirement of stars Aaron Rodgers and Travis Kelce, referencing historical "farewell seasons." Contributors have ranked the 10 best farewell seasons in NFL history, with Jerome Bettis, John Elway, and Peyton Manning topping the list. Rodgers and Kelce are noted as hoping to emulate these successful career conclusions, with the newsletter providing context on how previous stars managed their final seasons.