Yemen escalation threatens dual strait blockade, risking global energy shock

A military escalation in Yemen has ended a four-year informal truce, triggering a cycle of violence that analysts warn could sever one of the world’s most critical energy arteries. The conflict began when Yemen’s internationally recognised government, backed by a Saudi-led coalition, bombed the runway at Sanaa International Airport to prevent an Iranian aircraft from landing. In swift retaliation, Houthi rebels fired ballistic missiles at Saudi Arabia’s Abha International Airport, accusing Riyadh of orchestrating the strike and declaring the end of de-escalation with its larger neighbour.

The incident has exposed deep regional fault lines, with conflicting narratives regarding the intercepted flight. The Yemeni government claimed the aircraft carried military experts, drone technology, and communication equipment, while Houthi officials insisted it was transporting over 200 stranded medical patients and a delegation returning from the funeral of the late Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The Houthis diverted the flight to Hodeidah before launching their counterstrike, which the coalition stated was intercepted.

This localised flare-up occurs at a precarious moment for global trade, as Iran has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz amid ongoing conflict with the United States and Israel. US President Donald Trump has reimposed a naval blockade on Iran-linked ships in that waterway. Experts warn that the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, a 29km bottleneck connecting the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden, is now a primary pressure point. Ibrahim Fraihat of the Doha Institute for Graduate Studies described the region as a powder keg, noting that spillover into surrounding maritime routes was inevitable.

Strategic analysts suggest Iran may be shifting focus to the Red Sea to counter the naval blockade in the Gulf. Ali Akbar Velayati, a senior adviser to Iran’s supreme leader, has highlighted the capability of the “axis of resistance” to block both waterways. This aligns with remarks from Esmail Qaani, commander of Iran’s Quds Force, who spoke of forming a “belt” between the two straits to protect the coalition. Mohammad Cherkaoui, another conflict resolution professor, warned that a parallel crisis at Bab al-Mandeb would create a pincer movement, destabilising Gulf security.

The economic implications of a dual closure are severe. Approximately 25 percent of global oil and gas supplies pass through these straits. A simultaneous shutdown would force ships to reroute around the Cape of Good Hope, adding 10 to 14 days to delivery schedules and causing shipping and insurance costs to skyrocket. Historically, the Bab al-Mandeb handles roughly 12 percent of global trade daily, including 4.0 million barrels of oil per day in 2024.

For Saudi Arabia, a blockade of the Red Sea would neutralise a key strategic advantage. The kingdom has utilised its 1,200km East-West Pipeline to export crude from its eastern facilities to the Red Sea port of Yanbu, bypassing the Hormuz blockade. The pipeline, operated by Saudi Aramco, is currently running at full capacity of 7 million barrels per day. However, exports from Yanbu rely on the Bab al-Mandeb remaining open for southbound shipping. If Houthi forces lock down the chokepoint, Saudi oil would be trapped alongside that of its Gulf neighbours, plunging the global economy into a deeper crisis.