Wisconsin Primary Tests Democratic Direction in High-Stakes Gubernatorial and Congressional Races

Voters in Wisconsin are participating in a high-stakes primary election to select nominees for governor, all eight US House of Representatives seats, the State Assembly, and half of the State Senate. The gubernatorial race is the focal point, serving as a proxy battle between the Democratic party’s progressive wing and its moderate establishment. State Representative Francesca Hong, a democratic socialist, leads Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley, the establishment favourite, in polls. The outcome is viewed as a critical test for Democratic voters' direction following progressive victories in Michigan and losses in the 2024 presidential election.

The contest follows a week where progressives scored a victory in Michigan’s US Senate primary, renewing questions about whether Democratic voters are moving further left. This year’s primaries have repeatedly seen outsider candidates outperform establishment favourites, reflecting frustration among many Democratic voters after the party’s losses in the 2024 presidential election and an internal debate happening over US support for Israel. While progressive candidates have won against establishment ones in heavily Democratic states like New York or Colorado, there have been questions about whether more leftist candidates can succeed in US states, like Michigan or Wisconsin, where both Democratic and Republican candidates can have a similar level of support.

Hong’s campaign has focused on issues like free childcare, cancelling student debt, and abolishing US Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE). She has faced scrutiny over past social media posts, including ones supporting Democratic Socialists of America (DSA) policies such as abolishing the US Senate and abolishing or defunding police. She’s since distanced herself from some of those positions, saying she doesn’t support the national DSA’s full platform and has pledged not to cut police budgets. Hong, who has been endorsed by Minnesota Democratic US Representative Ilhan Omar and has campaigned alongside left-wing commentator Hasan Piker, has also described Israel’s actions in Gaza as genocide, advocated for Palestinian rights and called for repealing a Wisconsin law that bars state agencies from contracting with companies that boycott Israel.

Crowley, the Milwaukee County executive, initially dropped out of the race and re-entered 10 days later, in mid-July, after being endorsed by outgoing Governor Tony Evers. The endorsement quickly cemented Crowley as the establishment favourite, with supporters arguing he’s the strongest candidate to keep the governor’s office in Democratic hands. Crowley, however, has insisted he isn’t an establishment democrat and that he considers the term a “slur”. He is also hoping to make history as Wisconsin’s first Black governor and said he intends to focus on undecided voters. A Marquette University Law School poll of Wisconsin Democratic primary voters conducted in late July showed Hong with a significant lead in the race.

In western Wisconsin’s 3rd Congressional District, Democrats are choosing between Rebecca Cooke – a nonprofit executive and the party’s 2024 nominee, who came within about three percentage points of defeating Republican Representative Derrick Van Orden – and Emily Berge, the former president of the Eau Claire City Council. The winner will face Van Orden in November in one of the country’s most competitive House races, and one Democrats see as one of their best opportunities to flip a Republican-held seat. An additional race to watch is in the state’s 7th Congressional District. The race has largely centred on Michael Alfonso, the 26-year-old son-in-law of US Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy, who has Trump’s endorsement. He faces several competitors, including Jessi Ebben, a manufacturing strategist and grassroots Trump organiser who has campaigned on border security, expanding American manufacturing and protecting gun rights, and Kevin Hermening, a former US Marine who was one of 66 Americans held hostage by Iran for 444 days starting in 1979. The district is expected to remain safely Republican, meaning the primary winner will be heavily favoured in November.

Democrats are also choosing between Chris Armstrong, former state Representative Fred Clark and Ginger Murray for their party’s nomination. Polls are open from 7am to 8pm local time (12:00-01:00 GMT on Tuesday-Wednesday).