US pullback proposal puts Indo-Pacific alliances under scrutiny

A US foreign-policy think tank has proposed a major restructuring of Washington’s military commitments in the Indo-Pacific, including ending mutual-defence alliances with South Korea, Japan, Australia and the Philippines.

The report, authored by Jennifer Kavanagh of the Defense Priorities Foundation, argues that US policy should prioritise homeland defence and access to key markets and trade routes. It calls for American forces to move from the western Pacific’s “first island chain” to the “second island chain”, where positions would be easier to defend.

The proposal also recommends replacing strategic ambiguity over Taiwan with a clear US non-intervention policy. Taiwan has no formal US guarantee of military assistance, while Beijing claims sovereignty over the island.

Analysts told Deutsche Welle that the plan could weaken deterrence, create a regional power vacuum and strengthen China’s position. They also projected higher defence spending across the region and pressure on existing nuclear non-proliferation efforts.

William Yang, a Taiwan-based security analyst with the International Crisis Group, said the proposals would be viewed with shock and argued that their adoption could have “earthquake-level” consequences. Other analysts described the report as flawed and warned that a US withdrawal could reduce Washington’s influence over regional rules, trade and security issues.

The governments named in the report had not formally commented, and there was no indication that the White House had adopted or was preparing to implement the recommendations.