US Long-Term Treasury Yields Rise Despite Lower Short-Term Rates

US short-term interest rates have fallen since Donald Trump’s inauguration on 20 January 2025, but longer-term Treasury yields have moved higher, according to an analysis published by Yahoo Finance and Barchart.

The analysis attributes lower Treasury-bill and money-market rates to Federal Reserve cuts and a Treasury Department decision to favour short-dated bills in new debt issuance. It says rates from two years to 30 years were higher on 31 August 2026 than on inauguration day, indicating a steepening yield curve.

The 10-year Treasury yield was nearing 4.8%, while the 30-year yield had recently approached 5.2%, described in the analysis as a 19-year high. Those longer-term yields more directly influence mortgage rates, corporate borrowing and other forms of long-duration finance.

The divergence means lower short-term rates do not translate into broadly lower borrowing costs. The analysis says consumers and businesses that depend on inexpensive refinancing could face increased pressure as existing debt is rolled over.

It also warns that highly indebted small-cap companies, including some Russell 2000 constituents, could be vulnerable to higher refinancing costs. Claims that roughly 40% of Russell 2000 companies are in severe financial difficulty were attributed to the analysis and were not independently verified in the supplied material.

For investors holding assets, the analysis says yields near 5% could offer competitive returns over the next five to 10 years, depending on market cycles. A further rise in the 10-year yield above 4.8% — and potentially towards 5% — was presented as a conditional risk for parts of the economy.