US-Iran conflict risks becoming 'forever war' as ceasefire collapses
Experts warn that despite US military superiority, Iran retains sufficient residual capacity to disrupt global energy supplies through the Strait of Hormuz, potentially trapping Washington in a prolonged air-power-centric campaign.
The United States and Iran are engaged in escalating military exchanges following the collapse of a June truce, raising concerns that the conflict could become an open-ended 'forever war'. Air raids, drone attacks, and missile launches have resumed, with Iranian forces disrupting shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and Iran-backed Houthi rebels threatening Saudi maritime routes. Diplomatic efforts appear stalled, with US President Donald Trump expressing little enthusiasm for new negotiations while Iranian officials warn of further escalation. Experts compare the situation to prolonged air-power-centric campaigns, noting that Iran's residual military capacity remains sufficient to disrupt global energy supplies despite US military superiority.
Kelly Grieco, a senior fellow at the Stimson Center, described the potential conflict as a "mow the lawn" approach, where Iranian capabilities grow until they are deemed intolerable, prompting renewed US strikes in an endless cycle. Megan Sutcliffe, a security analyst at Sibylline, warned that if the US continues to target infrastructure such as railways, bridges, and energy facilities, Iran will respond in kind by targeting similar facilities in the Gulf, Jordan, and Syria. Grieco noted that even if the US destroys 95% of Iran’s missile launchers and drones, the residual 5% capacity is sufficient to disrupt traffic through the Strait of Hormuz due to the mobile and distributed nature of these assets.
Iranian Interior Minister Eskandar Momeni travelled to Pakistan, identified as a key mediator behind the previous ceasefire, in an attempt to revive diplomatic talks. However, prospects for a breakthrough appear slim. US President Donald Trump has expressed no interest in meeting, while threatening further destruction of Iranian civilian infrastructure. Iranian chief negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf has warned that regional infrastructure remains unsafe unless Tehran’s security is guaranteed.
US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth has requested an additional $70 billion in war funding as the conflict expands. On a recent Thursday, Iran's military command announced it would target any ship transiting the Strait of Hormuz, declaring the waterway closed to all vessel traffic. This decision followed Iranian strikes on two vessels attempting to pass through the strategic route and recent US airstrikes in southern Iran. US Central Command denied the closure, stating commercial ships continue to transit.
The escalation marks a significant widening of the conflict, with disruptions now impacting both the Bab al-Mandeb strait and the Strait of Hormuz. While de-escalation is theoretically possible, as seen in previous diplomatic shifts, the current trajectory suggests a war of attrition. With both sides choosing pressure over compromise, the conflict risks dragging on for years, mirroring historical patterns of prolonged military engagement without a definitive conclusion.
