UN warns El Nino could push global temperatures higher

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has issued a significant update regarding global climate conditions, predicting an 80% likelihood of a moderate to strong El Nino event occurring between June and August 2026. The UN weather agency noted that indications of this weather pattern have been gathering for several months, driven by substantial anomalies in Pacific Ocean temperatures. If the event begins as forecast, there is a probability near or above 90% that it will persist until at least November 2026.

Data collected between late April and mid-May 2026 shows that sub-surface sea temperatures in the central-eastern Equatorial Pacific were recorded as more than 6 degrees Celsius above average. During the same period, sea-surface temperatures in the monitoring area approached El Nino thresholds. These physical indicators have led the WMO to conclude that most forecast models suggest the upcoming phenomenon will be at least moderate, with a possibility of it being strong.

WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo urged governments and agencies to prepare for the most serious scenario. She highlighted that a potentially strong El Nino event would exacerbate droughts and heavy rainfall, while increasing the risk of heatwaves both on land and in the ocean. Additional risks include higher prevalences of diseases spread by insects such as mosquitoes or ticks, as well as reduced food and water supplies.

The implications for global agriculture are particularly concerning. The WMO warned that crops susceptible to climate change, such as cocoa, could face unusually poor harvests. This follows the 2023 to 2024 El Nino period, which contributed to 2024 being recorded as the hottest year on record worldwide. The agency’s forecasts for June to August project a nearly universal dominance of above-normal temperatures across nearly all parts of the globe.

UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres described El Nino as adding "fuel to the fire" of global warming, warning that impacts will travel further and cross borders with devastating speed. In a video statement, he called for urgent climate action equal to the crisis, including ending fossil fuel addiction, accelerating the shift to renewables, and delivering early warning systems for all. This warning comes amid record May temperatures in western Europe and typically high temperatures in parts of Asia, including India and China.