TPLF reasserts control in Tigray, sparking fears of regional escalation
The election of Debretsion Gebremichael as Tigray president has dissolved the federal interim administration, prompting concerns of a broader conflict involving Eritrea and its access to the Assab port.
Tensions in the Horn of Africa have intensified following the Tigray People's Liberation Front’s (TPLF) reassertion of political dominance in the Tigray region. On May 5, TPLF leader Debretsion Gebremichael was elected president of Tigray, a move that effectively dissolved the interim regional administration appointed by the Ethiopian federal government. This development marks a significant rupture in the stability established by the 2022 Pretoria peace agreement, which had sidelined the TPLF’s wartime leadership in favour of a transitional government.
The political shift has triggered a direct confrontation with the federal-aligned interim administration. TPLF deputy Amanuel Assefa declared that the interim administration no longer exists, while Tadesse Werede, the president of the Tigray Transitional Administration, rejected the move as an illegitimate seizure of power. Werede warned that any attempt to remove him by force would be illegitimate, stating that the group attempting to seize control was responsible for the destruction and danger facing the people of Tigray. Analysts note that the federal government has yet to issue a direct response, leaving the situation in a state of high uncertainty.
Concurrent with the political upheaval, there are reports of increased military activity in the region. Journalists and experts have observed Ethiopian military jets flying over the capital, Mekelle, and the positioning of troops in the neighbouring states of Amhara and Afar. Defence installations are reportedly being expanded along access roads to Addis Ababa from the north. Magnus Treiber, an anthropologist and expert on the Horn of Africa, described the presence of MiG fighter jets as a show of force by the Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF).
The crisis raises fears of a broader conflict involving Eritrea, which views Ethiopian access to the Assab port as a threat to its sovereignty. Amanuel Gedebo, a researcher at the Clingendael Institute, noted that Eritrea is attempting to build alliances with actors such as Egypt and the Port Sudan government, as well as internal Ethiopian factions like the TPLF and Fano militias. This strategic positioning appears designed to deter the Ethiopian government and prepare for a potential showdown, ensuring Eritrea does not face the stronger Ethiopian army alone.
Economic and geopolitical factors may currently restrain immediate escalation. Ethiopia is facing fuel shortages and rising inflation, which analysts suggest may discourage the federal government from making escalatory moves in the north. Furthermore, traditional backers of the region, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia, may have reduced capacity for active involvement due to conflicts in their own neighbourhoods. Meanwhile, the United States has renewed interest in Eritrea due to its geostrategic position, with the lifting of sanctions held out as a prospect, despite ongoing human rights concerns.
