Sutton’s World Cup 2026 Predictions: Mexico Edge South Africa in Opener
Chris Sutton backs South Korea for the title, with Mexico as runners-up, while highlighting tactical challenges for co-hosts and traditional powerhouses.
BBC Sport football expert Chris Sutton has released comprehensive score predictions for the opening round of group matches at the 2026 FIFA World Cup, providing analysis for all 104 games in the expanded tournament. Sutton, who is covering the event for BBC Radio 5 Live, began his assessment with the tournament opener between co-hosts Mexico and South Africa at the Azteca Stadium. He predicts a narrow victory for Mexico, citing home advantage despite concerns over the attacking options of a squad that lacks players from Europe’s top five leagues. Sutton notes that the onus falls on 35-year-old Raul Jimenez to lead the line, though he questions whether the striker retains the form that defined his earlier career.
The predictions extend beyond the opening fixture, with Sutton offering pre-tournament picks for group winners, runners-up, and third and fourth place finishers across all groups. He backs South Korea to win the tournament, with Mexico as runners-up, the Czech Republic in third, and South Africa fourth. In Group B, Sutton predicts Switzerland will win ahead of Canada, with Bosnia-Herzegovina third and Qatar fourth. He highlights the resilience of the Czech Republic and the high-intensity pressing style of the Canadian side, while noting the absence of injured defender Moise Bombito as a significant blow for Canada.
Sutton’s analysis covers the full slate of opening matches, including a forecast for Brazil to win their group ahead of Scotland, with Morocco third and Haiti fourth. He points to the defensive strength of Brazil, anchored by Arsenal’s Gabriel and Paris Saint-Germain’s Marquinhos, as a key factor. In Group E, he predicts Turkey will win, with Paraguay as runners-up, the United States third, and Australia fourth. Sutton suggests the United States may have to settle for a draw against a tough Paraguayan defence, while highlighting the goal-scoring potential of Australian striker Mohamed Toure.
The predictions also address Germany’s campaign, with Sutton backing them to win their group ahead of Ecuador, Ivory Coast, and Curacao. He notes the unusual lack of expectation surrounding the German side following their previous group stage exits, but predicts they will find a way through a defensive Curacao side. In Group G, Sutton backs Japan to win their group, with the Netherlands as runners-up, Tunisia third, and Sweden fourth. He references his previous correct prediction of a Japan victory over Germany, citing the technical quality of the Japanese squad.
Sutton’s final group predictions include Belgium winning ahead of Egypt, Spain winning ahead of Uruguay, Senegal winning ahead of France, Argentina winning ahead of Austria, Colombia winning ahead of Portugal, and England winning ahead of Ghana. He expresses concern over England’s defence but praises their midfield strength, while predicting that an ageing Croatian side will struggle in the heat. The predictions were published alongside an AI-generated prediction tool using Microsoft Copilot Chat, which Sutton notes finished top of the BBC Premier League Predictions League last season.
