Sutton’s final World Cup group stage predictions: Argentina rest Messi, Portugal held by Colombia
While Sutton correctly identified 14 of 24 results in the second round, user participants in the BBC’s interactive game significantly outperformed both the expert and an AI model.
BBC Sport football expert Chris Sutton has released score predictions for the final round of group stage matches at the 2026 FIFA World Cup, forecasting outcomes for all 104 tournament games. The predictions address critical group standings, including tactical decisions by national teams and specific scorelines for high-profile fixtures.
Sutton predicts that Argentina will secure their group victory but will likely rest Lionel Messi against Jordan to preserve the player for the knockout stages. He notes that while this decision may impact Messi’s chances for the Golden Boot, it is a strategic move to protect the squad’s tournament prospects. In a separate fixture, Sutton forecasts a draw between Portugal and Colombia, with Cristiano Ronaldo scoring both goals for Portugal, though Colombia will prevent Portugal from topping the group.
In other key matchups, Sutton expects Belgium to defeat Iran to secure first place in their group, citing Iran’s strong defensive record but Egypt’s superior attacking threat in a parallel match. Spain is predicted to beat Cape Verde to ensure they finish top of their group, while England is forecast to defeat Panama, with Sutton suggesting Harry Kane will score after missing a significant opportunity against Ghana.
Sutton also predicts Brazil will beat Scotland, though he expects Scotland to advance as one of the best third-placed teams rather than winning this specific match. France is tipped to defeat Norway, with Sutton forecasting that Kylian Mbappé will outscore Erling Haaland in the tournament. Mexico is predicted to win against the Czech Republic, leveraging home advantage and altitude at the Estadio Azteca.
The release of these predictions coincides with an update on predictive accuracy. In the second round of group games, Sutton correctly predicted 14 out of 24 results, an improvement from 12 in the first round. An AI model using Microsoft Copilot Chat improved from 13 to 15 correct predictions, while user participants in the BBC’s interactive game made a significant jump from 13 to 18 correct predictions.
Sutton’s pre-tournament picks identified South Korea as winners, with Mexico as runners-up, the Czech Republic in third, and South Africa in fourth. His current analysis covers the final group standings, including predictions for Switzerland edging Bosnia-Herzegovina and Turkey’s elimination despite their quality.
