Study suggests Reform UK support may plateau due to ideological constraints
Research led by psephologist John Curtice finds that while Reform UK benefits from discontent with public services, its reliance on socially conservative positions limits its potential to expand beyond the mid- to high-20s percentage range.
A large-scale study conducted as part of the British Social Attitudes report indicates that Reform UK’s electoral support may struggle to rise significantly above the mid- to high-20s percentage range. The research, led by psephologist John Curtice and surveying over 4,600 people across the UK, suggests that while the party benefits from widespread dissatisfaction with public services and politicians, its recent growth is primarily driven by socially conservative ideological views held by a minority of voters.
Curtice, a fellow of the National Centre for Social Research which has organised the annual British Social Attitudes project since 1983, noted that while the party’s current political strategy may be sufficient to win a general election under the first-past-the-post system given the fragmentation of party support, it presents a likely ceiling for broader success. He stated that something like 30 per cent looks like a probable limit, as the party is unlikely to rise much further given the character of the campaign issues it is emphasising.
The survey identified that Reform supporters are disproportionately likely to be older, male, and to have voted for Brexit. Educational attainment also appears to correlate with support for the party, with only 9 per cent of graduates backing Reform, compared to 40 per cent of those with qualifications below A-level standard. Furthermore, an “interaction group” of voters who are both authoritarian and dissatisfied showed a 46 per cent support rate for the party.
While dissatisfaction with the NHS and concerns over personal finances are common among Reform backers, the study found that new recruits since 2024 are driven more by ideology than by economic discontent. A striking thread among supporters is mistrust in the government’s ability to improve conditions, with many agreeing that politicians talk too much and take too little action. However, the report emphasised that the party’s ability to appeal to those with a distinctive ideological outlook has been the more important reason for its increase in support.
Key attitudes among Reform supporters include strong opposition to migration and perceived overreach in equal opportunities for various groups. Sixty-seven per cent of Reform supporters believe migrants are bad for the economy, and 75 per cent think they undermine UK culture, figures more than double those of the general population. Additionally, 88 per cent of Reform backers believe equal opportunities for transgender people have “gone too far”, compared to 48 per cent of the general public.
Similar majorities expressed concerns regarding equal opportunities for lesbian, gay, and bisexual people (52 per cent) and black and Asian people (51 per cent), compared to 27 per cent and 17 per cent nationally. Curtice argued that while improving the state of the country, such as through better public services, would help counter populism, it may not be enough to stop Reform’s rise given this sharp ideological distinctiveness.