Strait of Hormuz oil flows surge but remain below pre-war benchmarks
Kpler data reveals a near-tripling of Gulf exports during the US-Iran MoU window, yet volumes stayed at 40 per cent of 2025 levels as shipping attacks persist.
Oil transit through the Strait of Hormuz nearly tripled during the 60-day period of the United States-Iran Memorandum of Understanding (MoU), according to ship tracking data from trade intelligence firm Kpler. The analysis indicates that approximately 374 million barrels of oil exited the Gulf during this window, equating to an average of 6.1 million barrels per day. This represents a significant increase from the 2.3 million barrels per day exported in the period from April until the MoU was signed on June 17.
Despite this substantial rise, Kpler notes that volumes only reached about 40 per cent of the roughly 15 million barrels that transited the strait daily in 2025. Emmanuel Belostrino, head of Global Crude and Geopolitical Market Data at Kpler, observed that more than half of the shipments occurred in the first three weeks of the agreement. He stated that by the end of the period, the flow was "thinner, darker and re-accumulating behind the chokepoint," suggesting a lack of sustained momentum as the agreement neared its conclusion.
The MoU, which was announced on June 17 following diplomatic activity primarily facilitated by Pakistan, expired on Monday without a permanent peace deal. The expiration occurred amid stalled negotiations between Washington and Tehran, despite US and Iranian officials previously casting the agreement as a step towards a permanent end to the war. The lapse in the MoU has raised concerns about the stability of one of the world's most critical energy supply nodes, particularly as diplomatic frameworks remain unresolved.
Security risks in the region have intensified concurrently with the diplomatic impasse. The UKMTO Operations Centre reported that five commercial vessels were attacked in the strait over the past week. On Tuesday, a cargo ship reported being struck by an unknown projectile off Oman, resulting in the death of one seafarer. The International Association of Dry Cargo Shipowners (INTERCARGO) identified the deceased mariner as a crew member on the Liberia-flagged bulk carrier Minoan Dignity.
INTERCARGO emphasised that seafarers are civilians and must never become targets or collateral victims of geopolitical conflicts. No government or group has claimed responsibility for the attack on the Minoan Dignity, which marks the first confirmed death in such an incident since July. According to the International Maritime Organization, at least 18 seafarers have been killed in attacks on commercial vessels in the region since the US and Israel launched their war on Iran in late February.
Preliminary data from Lloyd’s List Intelligence shows that 73 transits were recorded between August 10 and 16, a decrease from 91 the previous week. Oil prices edged higher on Thursday, with Brent crude futures up about 0.3 per cent at $91.93 per barrel as of 06:00 GMT. Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at Australia-based KCM Trade, noted that markets anticipate further declines in oil flows due to the impasse between Washington and Tehran. He stated that until there is clearer evidence of sustained, safe transit and a more durable diplomatic framework, confidence among operators is likely to remain low.
