SportsLine model projects Under on NBA Finals Game 3 total

The New York Knicks are poised to extend their dominance over the San Antonio Spurs in Game 3 of the 2026 NBA Finals, holding a commanding 2-0 series lead following a narrow 105-104 victory in Game 2. As the series moves to Madison Square Garden for Monday’s tip-off at 8:30 p.m. ET, the Sporting News has turned to SportsLine’s projection model for its latest betting predictions. The model, which utilises 10,000 simulations to analyse game outcomes, has identified a specific trend in the upcoming contest.

According to the projection, SportsLine is recommending an Under on the total points line of 216.5. The algorithm estimates a combined score of 214 points for the matchup. This projection aligns with recent historical data, noting that the Under has hit in each of the last three head-to-head matchups between the two franchises. Furthermore, the model indicates that the Under has occurred in 53.1 per cent of its simulations for this specific game.

The breakdown of individual player performance within the model highlights a reliance on key stars for both teams. Victor Wembanyama is projected to lead the Spurs with 27.7 points, with only three Spurs players expected to score 14.8 points or more. Conversely, the Knicks are expected to have greater depth in scoring, with Jalen Brunson leading New York with 25.8 points and four players projected to score 15 points or more.

The context of the series has been defined by tactical adjustments and external distractions. The Knicks’ 2-0 lead was secured through a strategic reduction in starter minutes to manage fatigue, a shift implemented by head coach Mike Brown. The series also saw significant disruption in Game 1 in San Antonio, where a fan storming the court to take a selfie with Wembanyama resulted in lifetime bans for two individuals.

Despite the Spurs’ historical struggles at Madison Square Garden, where they have lost their last six consecutive games, the model suggests a tight contest. While the specific side of the spread that hits in well over 50 per cent of simulations is not explicitly named in the provided data, the model’s overall track record includes a 26-10 record on top-rated NBA spread picks this season. The Knicks enter the game as a 2.5-point favourite according to FanDuel Sportsbook odds.